Engine accuracy

Typical miss is how close the point projection was. Boom is above the ceiling we posted; bust is below the floor. Those two plus “in the band” add to 100%. A fair 20th–80th band is about 60% in, not a percent-correct score.

2026 · Week 8 · 300 skill players

Typical miss

4.3

MAE in half-PPR — this is how close the point projection was

Engine high / low

0.0

Average projected minus actual. Positive = we were high.

In the band

42%

127 of 300 between floor and ceiling. Fair band ≈ 60%.

Boom

29%

86 scored above the published ceiling

Bust

29%

87 scored below the published floor

QB miss 7.4 · RB miss 4.2 · WR miss 3.7 · TE miss 3.8.

Tyler AllgeierRBARI6.133.6-27.527.5Boom
Lamar JacksonQBBAL24.90.0+24.924.9Bust
Adonai MitchellWRNYJ0.823.7-22.922.9Boom
Michael Penix Jr.QBATL18.4-1.9+20.320.3Bust
Emmett JohnsonRBKC3.122.8-19.719.7Boom
Gardner MinshewQBARI0.019.5-19.519.5Boom
Tee HigginsWRCIN14.632.5-17.917.9Boom
Zay FlowersWRBAL17.50.0+17.517.5Bust
Tyler WarrenTEIND20.53.8+16.716.7Bust
Cam WardQBTEN9.826.3-16.516.5Boom
Jacoby BrissettQBARI18.73.5+15.215.2Bust
Jayden DanielsQBWAS29.615.0+14.614.6Bust
Chimere DikeWRTEN1.415.6-14.214.2Boom
Michael WilsonWRARI8.622.8-14.214.2Boom
Patrick MahomesQBKC11.425.4-14.014.0Boom
Drake LondonWRATL15.21.3+13.913.9Bust
Bhayshul TutenRBJAX15.528.9-13.413.4Boom
Tre TuckerWRLV13.30.0+13.313.3Bust
Kyle PittsTEATL14.71.6+13.113.1Bust
Brock BowersTELV11.824.7-12.912.9Boom
Joe BurrowQBCIN26.639.5-12.912.9Boom
Kirk CousinsQBLV15.628.2-12.612.6Boom
Harold Fannin Jr.TECLE5.918.4-12.512.5Boom
Jonah ColemanRBDEN6.418.4-12.012.0Boom
D'Andre SwiftRBCHI15.126.9-11.811.8Boom
Parker WashingtonWRJAX14.83.1+11.711.7Bust
Dalton KincaidTEBUF5.316.6-11.311.3Boom
Matthew StaffordQBLAR19.38.3+11.011.0Bust
Caleb DouglasWRMIA17.26.3+10.910.9Bust
Jonathan TaylorRBIND15.54.7+10.810.8Bust
Chris Godwin Jr.WRTB10.60.0+10.610.6Bust
Jared GoffQBDET18.69.0+9.69.6Bust
Gunnar HelmTETEN2.712.1-9.49.4Boom
Tony PollardRBTEN17.827.2-9.49.4In
J.K. DobbinsRBDEN10.61.3+9.39.3Bust
Keon ColemanWRBUF10.20.9+9.39.3Bust
Chuba HubbardRBCAR12.421.4-9.09.0In
Aaron RodgersQBPIT13.84.9+8.98.9Bust
Jalen NailorWRLV2.911.8-8.98.9Boom
Javonte WilliamsRBDAL15.06.2+8.88.8Bust
Samaje PerineRBCIN11.22.4+8.88.8Bust
Kenny GainwellRBTB5.614.0-8.48.4Boom
Mike GesickiTECIN7.215.6-8.48.4Boom
Ja'Marr ChaseWRCIN17.325.6-8.38.3Boom
Matthew GoldenWRGB9.217.4-8.28.2In
Braelon AllenRBNYJ14.422.3-7.97.9Boom
Isaiah BondWRCLE7.90.0+7.97.9Bust
Chris Rodriguez Jr.RBJAX4.512.3-7.87.8Boom
Jaylen WaddleWRDEN5.613.4-7.87.8Boom
Baker MayfieldQBTB9.01.4+7.67.6Bust
Daniel JonesQBIND14.16.5+7.67.6Bust
Jerry JeudyWRCLE7.40.0+7.47.4Bust
Chig OkonkwoTEWAS9.52.2+7.37.3Bust
Isaiah WilliamsWRNYJ1.18.3-7.27.2Boom
Nate AdkinsTEDEN0.27.4-7.27.2Boom
Ashton JeantyRBLV15.98.8+7.17.1Bust
Bam KnightRBARI7.40.3+7.17.1Bust
Ladd McConkeyWRLAC3.810.6-6.86.8Boom
Malik WillisQBMIA21.414.6+6.86.8In
Mason TaylorTENYJ10.23.4+6.86.8Bust
DK MetcalfWRPIT7.60.9+6.76.7Bust
Hunter HenryTENE11.24.5+6.76.7Bust
Kenneth Walker IIIRBKC17.110.4+6.76.7In
Kevin Coleman Jr.WRMIA5.412.1-6.76.7Boom
Travis HunterWRJAX6.90.5+6.46.4Bust
Eli StowersTEPHI0.56.8-6.36.3Boom
Sione VakiRBDET1.27.5-6.36.3Boom
Tommy TrembleTECAR8.72.4+6.36.3Bust
Darnell WashingtonTEPIT4.710.9-6.26.2Boom
George PickensWRDAL12.05.8+6.26.2In
Jaylen WarrenRBPIT14.720.8-6.16.1In
Oronde Gadsden IITELAC1.67.7-6.16.1Boom
Tez JohnsonWRTB6.10.0+6.16.1Bust
Tucker KraftTEGB8.214.3-6.16.1Boom
Josh JacobsRBGB14.220.2-6.06.0In
Eli RaridonTENE6.91.0+5.95.9Bust
Brian Thomas Jr.WRJAX1.97.7-5.85.8Boom
Drake MayeQBNE28.322.5+5.85.8In
Josh CuevasTEBAL7.82.0+5.85.8Bust
Quinshon JudkinsRBCLE11.65.9+5.75.7Bust
Sean TuckerRBTB5.70.0+5.75.7Bust
Wan'Dale RobinsonWRTEN7.012.7-5.75.7Boom
Kyle WilliamsWRNE5.210.8-5.65.6Boom
Makai LemonWRPHI14.38.7+5.65.6In
Kimani VidalRBLAC9.44.0+5.45.4Bust
Ollie Gordon IIRBMIA12.36.9+5.45.4Bust
Jeremiyah LoveRBARI7.62.3+5.35.3Bust
Omarion HamptonRBLAC9.03.7+5.35.3Bust
T.J. HockensonTEMIN8.513.8-5.35.3Boom
Tory HortonWRSEA0.96.1-5.25.2Boom
Nate BoerkircherTEJAX4.59.6-5.15.1Boom
Sam DarnoldQBSEA12.417.5-5.15.1In
Kalif RaymondWRCHI1.36.3-5.05.0Boom
Bijan RobinsonRBATL12.57.6+4.94.9Bust
Tutu AtwellWRLAR1.36.2-4.94.9Boom
Jordan MasonRBMIN6.82.0+4.84.8Bust
DJ MooreWRBUF9.914.6-4.74.7Boom
Jordan AddisonWRMIN5.410.1-4.74.7Boom
Jordan LoveQBGB16.821.5-4.74.7In
Pierre StrongRBGB4.90.2+4.74.7Bust
Aaron JonesRBMIN9.65.0+4.64.6In
Dak PrescottQBDAL15.219.8-4.64.6In
Malik WashingtonWRMIA7.912.5-4.64.6Boom
Mike Washington Jr.RBLV3.78.3-4.64.6Boom
Justin HerbertQBLAC12.37.8+4.54.5In
Jack EndriesTECIN2.26.6-4.44.4Boom
Josh PalmerWRBUF4.40.0+4.44.4Bust
Luther Burden IIIWRCHI10.815.1-4.34.3In
Reggie VirgilWRARI4.30.0+4.34.3Bust
Treylon BurksWRWAS5.39.6-4.34.3Boom
Pat FreiermuthTEPIT6.410.6-4.24.2Boom
Scott MatlockRBLAC4.20.0+4.24.2Bust
Bo NixQBDEN15.319.3-4.04.0In
Evan EngramTEDEN4.00.0+4.04.0Bust
MarShawn LloydRBGB6.12.1+4.04.0Bust
Xavier WorthyWRKC6.82.8+4.04.0In
Daniel BellingerTETEN1.25.1-3.93.9Boom
Ja'Kobi LaneWRBAL5.71.8+3.93.9Bust
Rome OdunzeWRCHI6.810.7-3.93.9Boom
Van JeffersonWRWAS3.80.0+3.83.8Bust
Darren WallerTECAR5.31.6+3.73.7Bust
Germie BernardWRPIT9.25.5+3.73.7In
Kendrick BourneWRARI7.03.4+3.63.6In
Kyren WilliamsRBLAR16.012.4+3.63.6In
Adam TrautmanTEDEN0.54.0-3.53.5Boom
Amon-Ra St. BrownWRDET12.69.1+3.53.5In
KC ConcepcionWRCLE8.75.2+3.53.5In
Sam LaPortaTEDET8.55.0+3.53.5In
Geno SmithQBNYJ14.618.0-3.43.4In
Greg DulcichTEMIA9.76.3+3.43.4In
James CookRBBUF20.517.1+3.43.4In
Rashod BatemanWRBAL6.12.7+3.43.4Bust
Rico DowdleRBPIT8.211.6-3.43.4In
Davis AllenTELAR5.11.8+3.33.3Bust
Tanner McKeeQBPHI10.37.0+3.33.3In
Jahan DotsonWRATL7.310.5-3.23.2In
Jakobi MeyersWRJAX6.63.4+3.23.2Bust
Saquon BarkleyRBPHI15.111.9+3.23.2In
Dallas GoedertTEPHI8.35.2+3.13.1In
Jaydon BlueRBPHI4.51.4+3.13.1Bust
Noah GrayTEKC5.48.5-3.13.1Boom
Stefon DiggsWRWAS14.411.3+3.13.1In
Elijah HigginsTEARI5.02.0+3.03.0In
Brevyn Spann-FordTEDAL2.25.1-2.92.9Boom
Bryce YoungQBCAR13.310.4+2.92.9In
Michael MayerTELV4.97.8-2.92.9In
Dylan SampsonRBCLE7.19.9-2.82.8In
Rachaad WhiteRBWAS10.213.0-2.82.8In
CeeDee LambWRDAL12.09.3+2.72.7In
Ryan FlournoyWRDAL8.911.6-2.72.7In
Ted Hurst IIIWRTB2.70.0+2.72.7Bust
Cooper KuppWRSEA4.67.2-2.62.6In
Jalen TolbertWRMIA3.91.3+2.62.6Bust
Justin JeffersonWRMIN14.411.8+2.62.6In
Roschon JohnsonRBCHI5.93.3+2.62.6In
Chase BrownRBCIN9.612.1-2.52.5In
David Martin-RobinsonTETEN0.53.0-2.52.5Boom
George HolaniRBSEA3.40.9+2.52.5Bust
Isaiah DavisRBNYJ4.01.5+2.52.5Bust
Josh CameronWRJAX2.50.0+2.52.5Bust
Josh DownsWRIND7.810.3-2.52.5In
Tyler HigbeeTELAR4.41.9+2.52.5Bust
AJ BarnerTESEA5.73.3+2.42.4In
Antonio WilliamsWRWAS5.57.9-2.42.4In
Caleb WilliamsQBCHI16.414.0+2.42.4In
Darius CooperWRPHI5.32.9+2.42.4In
Brandon JohnsonWRPIT3.71.4+2.32.3In
Bucky IrvingRBTB18.721.0-2.32.3In
Deion BurksWRIND3.00.7+2.32.3In
Deshaun WatsonQBCLE13.511.2+2.32.3In
Devin DuvernayWRARI0.12.4-2.32.3Boom
Austin EkelerRBWAS3.45.6-2.22.2In
Colson YankoffTEWAS0.12.3-2.22.2Boom
Keleki LatuTEBUF0.12.3-2.22.2Boom
Puka NacuaWRLAR17.319.5-2.22.2In
Tre HarrisWRLAC2.44.6-2.22.2Boom
Jauan JenningsWRMIN4.22.1+2.12.1In
Simi FehokoWRARI0.12.2-2.12.1Boom
DJ GiddensRBIND2.34.3-2.02.0Boom
Elic AyomanorWRTEN2.94.9-2.02.0Boom
Khalil ShakirWRBUF10.98.9+2.02.0In
Tyler HuntleyQBBAL0.0-2.0+2.02.0Bust
Zach CharbonnetRBSEA6.44.4+2.02.0In
Dylan LaubeRBLV3.41.5+1.91.9In
Konata MumpfieldWRLAR1.90.0+1.91.9Bust
Marquise BrownWRPHI4.62.7+1.91.9In
Savion WilliamsWRGB4.72.8+1.91.9In
Ty JohnsonRBBUF5.73.8+1.91.9In
Tyler GoodsonRBDAL2.44.3-1.91.9Boom
Xavier RestrepoWRTEN1.13.0-1.91.9Boom
Charlie WoernerTEATL1.80.0+1.81.8Bust
KeAndre Lambert-SmithWRLAC3.31.5+1.81.8In
Mark AndrewsTEBAL4.72.9+1.81.8In
Chris BellWRMIA3.24.9-1.71.7In
Jeremy McNicholsRBWAS1.63.3-1.71.7Boom
Rhamondre StevensonRBNE12.210.5+1.71.7In
Hunter LuepkeRBDAL1.43.0-1.61.6Boom
Kenyon SadiqTENYJ1.12.7-1.61.6Boom
Trevor LawrenceQBJAX21.019.4+1.61.6In
Andrew OgletreeTEIND1.50.0+1.51.5Bust
Laquon TreadwellWRIND3.82.3+1.51.5In
Travis KelceTEKC7.79.2-1.51.5In
Brenton StrangeTEJAX7.96.5+1.41.4In
Christian WatsonWRGB11.913.3-1.41.4In
Elijah MitchellRBPHI4.35.7-1.41.4In
Jahdae WalkerWRCHI0.11.5-1.41.4Boom
Julius ChestnutRBTEN0.11.5-1.41.4Boom
Quintin MorrisTEJAX0.11.5-1.41.4Boom
Trevor EtienneRBCAR1.50.1+1.41.4Bust
Brycen TremayneWRCAR0.31.6-1.31.3Boom
Colston LovelandTECHI9.38.0+1.31.3In
Jalen CokerWRCAR7.38.6-1.31.3In
Seydou TraoreTEMIA0.21.5-1.31.3Boom
Trey McBrideTEARI18.016.7+1.31.3In
Austin HooperTEATL2.61.4+1.21.2In
Derrick HenryRBBAL11.813.0-1.21.2In
Kyler MurrayQBMIN21.119.9+1.21.2In
Will KacmarekTEMIA1.20.0+1.21.2Bust
Adam PrenticeRBDEN0.41.5-1.11.1Boom
Ben YurosekTEMIN1.82.9-1.11.1Boom
Connor HeywardRBLV1.10.0+1.11.1Bust
DeMario DouglasWRNE14.015.1-1.11.1In
James MitchellTEDAL0.41.5-1.11.1Boom
Jonathan MingoWRDAL1.10.0+1.11.1Bust
Quentin JohnstonWRLAC6.85.7+1.11.1In
Calvin RidleyWRTEN2.51.5+1.01.0In
Efton Chism IIIWRNE3.24.2-1.01.0In
Jackson HawesTEBUF0.21.2-1.01.0Boom
Myles PriceWRMIN1.00.0+1.01.0In
Troy FranklinWRDEN1.80.8+1.01.0In
Tylan WallaceWRCLE1.80.8+1.01.0In
Zavion ThomasWRCHI1.90.9+1.01.0In
Ameer AbdullahRBJAX0.41.3-0.90.9Boom
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWRSEA21.720.8+0.90.9In
Keaton MitchellRBLAC2.93.8-0.90.9In
Kenny YeboahTEARI0.61.5-0.90.9Boom
Ko KieftTETB0.90.0+0.90.9Bust
Cody SchraderRBDEN0.80.0+0.80.8Bust
Dareke YoungWRLV0.00.8-0.80.8Boom
David MooreWRCAR0.80.0+0.80.8In
Jaylen WrightRBMIA1.30.5+0.80.8Bust
Keenan AllenWRIND9.410.2-0.80.8In
LaJohntay WesterWRBAL0.80.0+0.80.8Bust
Mitchell EvansTECAR2.43.2-0.80.8In
Nick MuseTEATL2.31.5+0.80.8In
Anthony RichardsonQBIND0.00.7-0.70.7Boom
Blake CorumRBLAR14.013.3+0.70.7In
Charlie KolarTELAC3.22.5+0.70.7In
Dyami BrownWRWAS1.50.8+0.70.7In
Nikko RemigioWRKC-0.70.0-0.70.7Boom
Rashee RiceWRKC15.514.8+0.70.7In
Tay MartinWRDET0.10.8-0.70.7Boom
Tetairoa McMillanWRCAR9.58.8+0.70.7In
Zavier ScottRBCHI0.10.8-0.70.7Boom
Jalen RoyalsWRKC1.50.9+0.60.6In
Jameson WilliamsWRDET15.615.0+0.60.6In
Jelani WoodsTENYJ0.60.0+0.60.6Bust
Josh AllenQBBUF26.026.6-0.60.6In
Kaytron AllenRBMIA2.43.0-0.60.6In
Khalil HerbertRBATL2.62.0+0.60.6In
Tahj BrooksRBCIN0.60.0+0.60.6Bust
Tanner KoziolTEJAX1.91.3+0.60.6In
Brady RussellRBSEA0.30.8-0.50.5Boom
Dawson KnoxTEBUF1.61.1+0.50.5In
Denzel BostonWRCLE6.26.7-0.50.5In
Garrett WilsonWRNYJ10.811.3-0.50.5In
John BatesTEWAS1.01.5-0.50.5In
Justice HillRBBAL5.05.5-0.50.5In
Marvin Mims Jr.WRDEN4.43.9+0.50.5In
Riley NowakowskiRBPIT0.50.0+0.50.5Bust
Zachariah BranchWRATL2.01.5+0.50.5In
Greg DortchWRBUF0.40.0+0.40.4Bust
Jahmyr GibbsRBDET24.223.8+0.40.4In
Ray DavisRBBUF2.63.0-0.40.4In
Bo MeltonWRGB1.21.5-0.30.3In
Cyrus AllenWRKC2.73.0-0.30.3In
DeeJay DallasRBMIN0.70.4+0.30.3In
Derius DavisWRLAC0.30.0+0.30.3Bust
Jordan WhittingtonWRLAR0.30.0+0.30.3Bust
LeQuint Allen Jr.RBJAX0.30.0+0.30.3Bust
Luke McCaffreyWRWAS0.30.0+0.30.3Bust
Malachi CorleyWRCLE0.30.0+0.30.3Bust
Matthew HibnerTEBAL0.30.0+0.30.3Bust
Quinn EwersQBJAX0.00.3-0.30.3Boom
Rasheen AliRBBAL0.80.5+0.30.3In
Corey KinerRBNE3.63.8-0.20.2In
Jacob SaylorsRBDET0.20.0+0.20.2Bust
John Metchie IIIWRCAR3.12.9+0.20.2In
Kaden WetjenWRPIT0.20.0+0.20.2Bust
Kyle AllenQBBUF0.0-0.2+0.20.2Bust
Alex BachmanWRLAR0.10.0+0.10.1In
Ashton DulinWRIND0.20.3-0.10.1In
Blake WhiteheartTECLE1.51.4+0.10.1In
Olamide ZaccheausWRATL0.80.9-0.10.1In
Seth McGowanRBIND3.02.9+0.10.1In
Shedeur SandersQBCLE0.00.1-0.10.1Boom
Tyler ConklinTEDET1.11.2-0.10.1In
Courtland SuttonWRDEN7.37.30.00.0In
DeAndre CarterWRDET0.00.00.00.0In
Lil'Jordan HumphreyWRDEN1.51.50.00.0In

FAQ

What is this table?
A grade of Engine weekly projections against official box scores, scored in half-PPR. Pick a year and a week, or season overall across every finished week. It is not Dynasty Value Score and not a start/sit ranking.
Which projection do you use?
The last snapshot posted before that player’s game kicked off. Tuesday’s first look is not the grade if a later injury refresh landed before kickoff.
Who is left out?
Players tagged Out or Doubtful before kickoff. Kickers, team defenses, and IDP are not on this board. Early-game injuries still count — we do not have a clean in-game exit timestamp.
What do boom and bust mean here?
Boom: official score finished above the published ceiling. Bust: below the published floor. In the band: between them. Together they are 100% of lines that had a floor and ceiling. Typical miss (MAE) is still how close the point projection was.
What is season overall?
Every finished week in that NFL year, pooled as player-weeks. One player can appear once per week. Mean error and inside-range are across that pool, not a single average of weekly averages.
Is this the same as confidence on My Team?
No. Roster confidence is how much pre-game signal the model had. This page is after-the-fact accuracy.