RB · BAL · #22
He's 33 — older RBs usually lose work and upside.
Picked by the Titans in 2016 via a trade with the Rams.
Dynasty Value Score (DVS)
5,152
Range 4,598–5,470
Based on 2025 production and our 2026 projection In-season usage moved the score inside this range.
Win-now veteran — still scores, but dynasty runway is short at this age for a RB.
DVS is our model view, scored on Engine-default half-PPR — not a guaranteed price in your league. Bye weeks and schedule strength are left out on purpose.
2026 total FP
112.3 pts
18.7 PPG
534 rush yds · 9 rec · 64 rec yds
Week 7 projection
17.7 pts
vs CIN · floor–ceiling 10.1–25.0
History starts Preseason 2026.
Why this DVS moved off a raw projection.
Process ×1.01
Process residual (not a second production percentile).
Org environment ×1.01
Team pass/rush volume vs league — scheme residual, not a second projection.
Henry ran for 534 yards and caught 9 passes in 2026, ranking RB4 through 6 games. He's 33 now, old enough that decline risk is real. The 2026 projection still has him in every-week starter range. Age makes this a fade risk in dynasty — win-now value only, don't pay a long-term price.
Dynasty notes from our blog that mention Derrick Henry.
Redzone and Stalled: Week 6 Hot and Cold Players, and What the Model Expects Next
Dynasty outlook for the players who beat or missed their Week 6 projection, with the model’s Week 7 line for each. Derek Sallis shows the work.
Week 4 Matchups: Who's Set Up to Win
Three weeks of tape point at Baltimore's offense and San Francisco's defense as the two strongest forces on the Week 4 board.
Zay Flowers Just Got Paid — Does the Ravens' Offense Hold Him Back?
Zay Flowers signed a $140 million extension after a WR7 breakout, but Baltimore's offense was one of the league's lowest-volume passing attacks. Here's his dynasty value.
Half-PPR points
112.3
PPG
18.7
Rank so far
RB4
Key stats
2026 week shape
3/6 Boom 50%
1/6 Bust 17%
Boom is 20+ half-PPR. Bust is under 5.
| Season | Finish | Half-PPR FP | PPG | Rush yd | Rush TD | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Pass yd | Pass TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | RB4so far | 112.3 | 18.7 | 534 | 7 | 9 | 64 | 1 | — | — |
| 2025 | RB7 | 272.0 | 16.0 | 1595 | 16 | 15 | 150 | — | — | — |
| 2024 | RB3 | 326.9 | 19.2 | 1921 | 16 | 19 | 193 | 2 | — | — |
| 2023 | RB8 | 232.7 | 13.7 | 1167 | 12 | 28 | 214 | — | 14 | 2 |
| 2022 | RB4 | 286.3 | 17.9 | 1538 | 13 | 33 | 398 | — | 4 | 1 |
| 2021 | RB16 | 184.3 | 23.0 | 937 | 10 | 18 | 154 | — | 5 | 1 |
| 2020 | RB2 | 323.6 | 20.2 | 2027 | 17 | 19 | 114 | — | — | — |
| 2019 | RB3 | 285.6 | 19.0 | 1540 | 16 | 18 | 206 | 2 | — | — |
| 2018 | RB14 | 193.9 | 12.1 | 1059 | 12 | 15 | 99 | — | 14 | — |
| 2017 | RB31 | 129.5 | 8.1 | 744 | 5 | 11 | 136 | 1 | — | — |
| 2016 | RB42 | 99.2 | 7.1 | 490 | 5 | 13 | 137 | — | — | — |
Career arc
Dashed bar is the 2026 Engine projection, not a completed season.
| Week | Half-PPR FP | Opp | Script | Rush | Rec | Pass |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W6 | 4.5Bust | CLE | 54 plays · 57% pass | 58 | 2 · 1 rec | 0 |
| 2026 W5 | 20.5Boom | ATL | 67 plays · 48% pass | 102 | 18 / 1 TD · 1 rec | 0 |
| 2026 W4 | 14.9 | TEN | 59 plays · 49% pass | 73 / 1 TD | 6 · 2 rec | 0 |
| 2026 W3 | 21.4Boom | DAL | 58 plays · 35% pass | 89 / 2 TD | 0 · 1 rec | 0 |
| 2026 W2 | 16.2 | NO | 53 plays · 59% pass | 68 / 1 TD | 19 · 3 rec | 0 |
| 2026 W1 | 34.8Boom | IND | 62 plays · 40% pass | 144 / 3 TD | 19 · 1 rec | 0 |
Weekly Half-PPR
Hover a week for the total.
Week 6 Engine grade
Projected 15.6 · scored 4.5 half-PPR · outside the floor–ceiling band. Miss +11.1.
Those opponents
Rush yards they allowed per game in 2026, vs league. Plus is easier.
Snap share
2025 offense · 54.5% mean
carry share
Hover a week for the share.
Pass-play participation
39.6%
2025· share of the team’s dropback plays this player was on the field for. Presence, not a charted route rate.
Advanced (2025)
Durability
R2 (45 overall) RB · that slot hit at 56.8% in 2010–2023 classes (n=37; contributor 70.3%). Window is the first three NFL seasons.
2026 season to date · Next Gen Stats · ranks among NGS sample Full table
15th of 46
29th of 46
2nd of 46
31st of 46
Similar age, draft capital, and role — context for outcome bands, not a second DVS.