Rankings
Redzone and Stalled: Week 6 Hot and Cold Players, and What the Model Expects Next
Dynasty outlook for the players who beat or missed their Week 6 projection, with the model’s Week 7 line for each. Derek Sallis shows the work.
By Derek Sallis · October 20, 2026
The model expects the hot players to cool off and the cold players to rebound, and the Week 7 lines say so. Half-PPR points below are the Week 6 result, the Week 6 projection and the Week 7 projection.
Redzone: beat their projection
| Player | Week 6 | Projected | Week 7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Penix Jr. | 23.1 | 7.2 | 8.4 |
| Tre Tucker | 24.2 | 9.0 | 8.5 |
| Germie Bernard | 20.2 | 5.1 | 7.4 |
| Isaiah Likely | 20.9 | 7.8 | 11.4 |
| Omar Cooper Jr. | 19.3 | 5.6 | 10.2 |
| Matthew Golden | 19.4 | 7.0 | 8.9 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 17.5 | 7.2 | 8.2 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 26.9 | 19.0 | 18.4 |
Seven of these eight players are projected for fewer than 12 points in Week 7. The exception is Walker, who is the Chiefs' starting back and ran for 128 yards and two touchdowns on 19 carries. His Week 7 line is still a high one, at 18.4 points on about 16 carries.
Cooper is the one rise worth a note. The model moves him from 5.6 to 10.2. He is still the Jets' third receiver, and Week 6 was only his second game with a catch this season. Don't read the jump as a three-game trend.
Stalled: fell short of their projection
| Player | Week 6 | Projected | Week 7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 6.3 | 20.2 | 16.0 |
| Derrick Henry | 4.5 | 15.6 | 17.7 |
| Brock Bowers | 9.0 | 19.7 | 12.7 |
| Kyren Williams | 8.2 | 17.9 | 19.9 |
| Nico Collins | 9.4 | 18.1 | 12.3 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 10.5 | 18.5 | 16.1 |
| Bo Nix | 4.5 | 14.8 | 15.7 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 5.3 | 16.2 | 14.7 |
The model expects every player here to score more than he did in Week 6. Henry, Kyren and Nix are projected above their Week 6 lines. The other five are projected lower than last week's line, but well above what they scored.
Henry's story is the box. About a third of his carries come against eight or more defenders, and Lamar Jackson is out again. Henry's Week 7 line goes up to 17.7 on about 22 carries. Allgeier has the same problem. Defenders stacked the box against him on 38 percent of his carries, and he ran 18 times for 38 yards.
Nix is the one quarterback miss that connects to his season. His completion rate is 5.3 percent below expectation on 135 attempts, and his Thursday line of 107 yards and no touchdowns fits that. The model puts him at 15.7 points against Arizona.
What it means for dynasty
None of these games should move a long-term value. The model treats the hot players as one-week spikes and the cold players as slumps. Bijan, Kyren and Henry kept their roles, and the model sees all three at 16 points or more. Set the lineup on the start/sit board. NextDyne is currently in early access — join the waitlist and lock in Founding Franchise status at $2.00/player for life.
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FAQ
- Which players beat their Week 6 projection by the most?
- Michael Penix Jr. scored 23.1 half-PPR against a 7.2 projection, Tre Tucker scored 24.2 against 9.0, and Germie Bernard scored 20.2 against 5.1. Those were the largest gaps among the eight hot names.
- Will Derrick Henry bounce back in Week 7?
- The model says yes, with 17.7 half-PPR points against Cincinnati on about 22 carries. About a third of his carries this season have come against eight or more defenders, and Lamar Jackson is out again.
- Do big games change a player’s dynasty value?
- Rarely. Seven of the eight players who beat their Week 6 projection are projected under 12 half-PPR points in Week 7. Kenneth Walker III is the exception, at 18.4.