QB · KC · #15
Patrick MahomesQ
- Height
- HT 6'2"
- Weight
- WT 230 lbs
- Birth date
- Sep 17, 1995 (age 31)
- College
- Texas Tech
He's been a weekly starter — recent finishes stay in the QB1–QB12 range.
Picked by the Chiefs in 2017 via a trade with the Bills.
Dynasty Value Score (DVS)
7,797
Range 7,074–8,508
Based on 2025 production and our 2026 projection
Proven QB in his prime — production and runway both hold.
DVS is our model view, scored on Engine-default half-PPR — not a guaranteed price in your league. Bye weeks and schedule strength are left out on purpose.
2026 Engine Projections
327.6 pts
19.3 PPG · 15.0 games
4358 pass yds · 27.5 pass TD · 441.5 rush yds
Player quality
Why this DVS moved off a raw projection.
Durability ×0.98
One recent short season (games missed). Production already saw the missed games — this is forward risk only.
Process ×0.98
Process residual (not a second production percentile).
Versatility ×1.02
Light floor from multi-role usage (rush+receive or dual-threat).
Org environment ×1.01
Team pass/rush volume vs league — scheme residual, not a second projection.
Quick answer
HoldMahomes threw for 3,587 yards and 22 TDs in 2025, finishing QB11. At 31, he's in the typical QB peak window. The 2026 projection keeps him in every-week starter range. This reads as a hold — nothing in the recent signal pushes it toward a buy or a sell.
NextDyne coverage
Dynasty notes from our blog that mention Patrick Mahomes.
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Jalen Hurts Enters a Reboot Year — Is His Dynasty Price Still Fair?
Jalen Hurts lost his top receiver and his fourth offensive coordinator in six years. Here's an honest look at his dynasty value heading into 2026.
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Lamar Jackson Is 29 — Is the Rushing Floor Starting to Crack?
Lamar Jackson finished QB20 in an injury-wrecked 2025. Here's an honest look at whether it's a one-year dip or the start of a real decline.
- StrategyNextDyne
Is Patrick Mahomes a Safe Dynasty Pick After ACL Tear?
Patrick Mahomes tore his ACL and LCL in December. Here's what his recovery timeline means for his dynasty value heading into 2026.
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Is It Time to Cut Ties With Travis Kelce in Dynasty?
Kelce's contract is structured for retirement in 2027. He's still TE3-caliber, but the dynasty window is closing fast. Here's the sell case.
2025 fantasy highlights
Half-PPR points
285.2
PPG
20.4
Positional finish
QB11
Key stats
- Pass yds: 3587 (QB12)
- Pass TD: 22 (QB17)
2025: 20.4 PPG actual vs 21.0 expected from usage (14 REG weeks, half-PPR) — underperformed by 3%.
Career (Half-PPR)
| Season | Finish | Half-PPR FP | PPG | Pass yd | Pass TD | Rush yd | Rush TD | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | QB11 | 285.2 | 20.4 | 3587 | 22 | 422 | 5 | 1 | -10 | — |
| 2024 | QB12 | 282.5 | 17.7 | 3928 | 26 | 307 | 2 | 1 | 2 | — |
| 2023 | QB8 | 280.2 | 17.5 | 4183 | 27 | 389 | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | QB1 | 416.9 | 24.5 | 5250 | 41 | 358 | 4 | 1 | 6 | — |
| 2021 | QB4 | 361.7 | 21.3 | 4839 | 37 | 381 | 2 | — | — | — |
| 2020 | QB4 | 374.4 | 25.0 | 4740 | 38 | 308 | 2 | — | — | — |
| 2019 | QB7 | 287.0 | 20.5 | 4031 | 26 | 218 | 2 | — | — | — |
| 2018 | QB1 | 417.1 | 26.1 | 5097 | 50 | 272 | 2 | — | — | — |
| 2017 | QB51 | 10.4 | 10.4 | 284 | — | 10 | — | — | — | — |
Career arc
Dashed bar is the 2026 Engine projection, not a completed season.
Recent games (2025)
| Week | Half-PPR FP | Opp | Script | Pass | Rush | Rec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W15 | 13.1 | LAC | 54 plays · 61% pass | 189 | 15 / 1 TD | 0 |
| 2025 W14 | 5.8 | HOU | 62 plays · 53% pass | 160 | 59 | -10 · 1 rec |
| 2025 W13 | 29.4 | DAL | 57 plays · 60% pass | 261 / 4 TD | 30 | 0 |
| 2025 W12 | 17.1 | IND | 87 plays · 53% pass | 352 | 30 | 0 |
| 2025 W11 | 13.3 | DEN | 59 plays · 76% pass | 276 / 1 TD | 3 | 0 |
| 2025 W9 | 10.5 | BUF | 54 plays · 63% pass | 250 | 5 | 0 |
| 2025 W8 | 23.0 | WAS | 64 plays · 53% pass | 299 / 3 TD | 30 | 0 |
| 2025 W7 | 26.2 | LV | 76 plays · 46% pass | 286 / 3 TD | 28 | 0 |
| 2025 W6 | 31.5 | DET | 59 plays · 51% pass | 257 / 3 TD | 32 / 1 TD | 0 |
| 2025 W5 | 26.7 | JAX | 63 plays · 65% pass | 318 / 1 TD | 60 / 1 TD | 0 |
Weekly Half-PPR
Hover a week for the gap.
Dashed line is expected Half-PPR from usage.
Those opponents
Pass yards they allowed per game in 2025, vs league. Plus is easier.
- LAC-13% · 195 pass yards
- HOU-9% · 205 pass yards
- DAL+18% · 266 pass yards
- IND+17% · 263 pass yards
- DEN-6% · 212 pass yards
- BUF-24% · 170 pass yards
- WAS+14% · 257 pass yards
- LV-5% · 214 pass yards
- DET+5% · 237 pass yards
- JAX+3% · 231 pass yards
Usage and availability
Snap share
2025 offense · 97.4% mean
pass-attempt share
Hover a week for the share.
Pass-play participation
99.1%
2025· share of the team’s dropback plays this player was on the field for. Presence, not a charted route rate.
Advanced (2025)
- Pressure rate
- 24.0%
- On-target throw %
- 74.3%
- Avg time in pocket
- 2.2s
Durability
- 202316 G
- 202416 G
- 202514 G
- 15.0 projected games — injury history is priced as risk, not a short 2026 slate.
R1 (10 overall) QB · that slot hit at 39.5% in 2010–2023 classes (n=43; contributor 62.8%). Window is the first three NFL seasons.
Next Gen Stats
2025 season · Next Gen Stats · ranks among NGS sample
- Time to throw
- 2.79s
- Aggressiveness
- 12.9%
- CPOE
- -2.9pp
- Air yds to sticks
- -0.9yd
15th of 42
32nd of 42
34th of 42
20th of 42
Historical comps
Similar age, draft capital, and role — context for outcome bands, not a second DVS.
FAQ
- What is Patrick Mahomes's dynasty value on NextDyne?
- Mahomes scores 7,797 out of 10,000. The score blends 2025 production with our 2026 projection. Superflex and TE Premium shift the rankings; the trade calculator shows how.
- What is Patrick Mahomes's 2026 Engine Projection?
- We project 19.3 half-PPR points per game for 2026. That rate feeds Value Score — multiply by games and your league’s scoring if you want a season total.
- How are season fantasy points calculated on this page?
- Season totals and the recent game log use Half-PPR so every public profile matches our Engine board. Your league’s scoring shows up inside the app.
- Should I trade for Patrick Mahomes in dynasty right now?
- This reads as a hold — nothing in the recent signal pushes it toward a buy or a sell. Run the actual numbers on the dynasty trade calculator before you commit — stance is a starting point, not a price.