Is Jalen Hurts's dynasty price still fair heading into 2026?

Roughly, yes. He scores a 9,220 Dynasty Value Score and projects for 309.2 half-PPR points in 2026, 18.2 per game — solidly in the second tier with Baker Mayfield, Lamar Jackson, and Joe Burrow. The offense around him is unsettled, but the rushing floor is still what keeps him there.

Why has Jalen Hurts's fantasy production declined every year since 2022?

Mostly a stalling run game. He went from 760 rushing yards and 13 rushing touchdowns in 2022 to 421 and 8 in 2025, and Saquon Barkley dropped from 2,005 rushing yards to 1,140 in the same window. It isn't tied to a single injury — it's a broader offensive slide Philadelphia is trying to fix with a new coordinator.

Does trading A.J. Brown hurt Jalen Hurts's dynasty outlook?

It's a real loss of a top-tier weapon, and it's fair to price that in. Brown is now New England's WR1 on our depth chart. Philadelphia clearly views the move as part of a broader offensive reset, but the immediate effect is a thinner receiving corps behind DeVonta Smith.

Will Jalen Hurts still get rushing touchdowns near the goal line in 2026?

Very likely. The tush push survived another league-wide effort to ban it this offseason, and new offensive coordinator Sean Mannion has publicly committed to keeping it in Philadelphia's playbook.

Strategy

Jalen Hurts Enters a Reboot Year — Is His Dynasty Price Still Fair?

Jalen Hurts lost his top receiver and his fourth offensive coordinator in six years. Here's an honest look at his dynasty value heading into 2026.

By Kenny Flermoen · August 15, 2026

Roughly, yes — but this is the most unsettled his outlook has looked in years. Hurts is coming off his fourth straight season of declining fantasy production, he just lost his best receiver in a trade, and he's adjusting to his seventh play-caller in seven NFL seasons. None of that is a reason to panic. All of it is a reason to be honest about where things actually stand.

The quick answer

Hurts scores a 9,220 Dynasty Value Score and projects for 309.2 half-PPR points in 2026, 18.2 per game. Both numbers put him solidly in the second tier of dynasty quarterbacks, in a tight cluster with Joe Burrow (9,260), Lamar Jackson (9,273), and Baker Mayfield (9,280). That's a real step down from the MVP-caliber player he looked like in 2022, and the gap isn't an illusion — his own numbers have declined every year since. He is still listed QB1 in Philadelphia as of August 12.

A four-year slide that isn't about injury

Hurts posted 378.0 half-PPR points in 2022, his peak season. Since then: 356.8 in 2023, 315.1 in 2024, and 301.1 in 2025. That's a real, gradual decline, and unlike a lot of the injury stories in this series, it isn't explained by a single bad break. His rushing production tells the clearest version of the story — 760 yards and 13 touchdowns in 2022, down to 421 yards and 8 touchdownslast season. Philadelphia's whole ground game slowed with him. Saquon Barkley went from 2,005 rushing yards in 2024 to 1,140 in 2025. When an offense's identity is built on the run and the run game stalls, the quarterback's fantasy numbers stall with it.

For the running-back side of that same reboot, see our Saquon Barkley dynasty write-up.

The receiver situation just changed completely

Philadelphia traded A.J. Brown to New England this offseason for a 2028 first-round pick and a 2027 fifth. That's a genuinely significant loss — Brown was Hurts's most explosive downfield target for years, and he is already listed as New England's WR1 on our depth chart. DeVonta Smith is now the clear leading returning receiver in an offense that has to figure out where its big plays come from without its top perimeter threat.

That's a real subtraction, and it's fair to weigh it as one. It's also a move that suggests Philadelphia is genuinely rebuilding the passing game's identity rather than trying to run the same offense back with worse results, which is its own kind of signal about the organization's self-awareness after a rough 2025.

The new coordinator, and what he's promising

Philadelphia fired offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo after the season and hired Sean Mannion, making him Hurts's seventh different primary play-caller across seven NFL seasons — a level of offensive instability that would be a real concern for almost any quarterback's development. Mannion has been vocal in camp about opening up the passing game with more pre-snap motion, more RPOs, and more middle-of-the-field shots than Philadelphia ran under Patullo, and he's specifically praised Hurts's athleticism as a tool he wants to use more aggressively in the run game.

The tush push isn't going anywhere, either — Mannion has publicly committed to keeping it in the playbook, calling it "extremely effective," and league-wide efforts to ban the play fell short of the votes needed again this offseason. That's a real, built-in floor for Hurts's goal-line production regardless of how the rest of the offensive overhaul goes.

Why the model still has him in the top tier

Even accounting for four straight years of decline, Hurts still completed passes 3.1 points above expectation in 2025 on Next Gen Stats, and the rushing floor — even a diminished one — still separates him from most pocket passers in fantasy value. Justin Herbert (9,158) and Brock Purdy (9,151) sit just below him without anything close to his rushing production. Josh Allen (9,597) and Patrick Mahomes (9,385) are the clear names above this cluster — Mahomes with his own real injury question this season.

The bottom line

If you're holding Hurts, this is a fair moment to have real questions, not a moment to panic-sell. The talent and the rushing floor haven't disappeared — the offense around him is genuinely being rebuilt, with real upside if Mannion's changes work and real risk if they don't. If you're targeting him in a trade, his price already reflects a real discount off his peak. Whether that discount is enough depends on how much you trust a brand-new offensive coordinator to fix what four different play-callers before him couldn't.

Model a trade for Hurts on the Dynasty Trade Calculator — his score already prices in both the decline and the rushing floor that keeps him afloat.

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FAQ

Is Jalen Hurts's dynasty price still fair heading into 2026?: Roughly, yes. He scores a 9,220 Dynasty Value Score and projects for 309.2 half-PPR points in 2026, 18.2 per game — solidly in the second tier with Baker Mayfield, Lamar Jackson, and Joe Burrow. The offense around him is unsettled, but the rushing floor is still what keeps him there.
Why has Jalen Hurts's fantasy production declined every year since 2022?: Mostly a stalling run game. He went from 760 rushing yards and 13 rushing touchdowns in 2022 to 421 and 8 in 2025, and Saquon Barkley dropped from 2,005 rushing yards to 1,140 in the same window. It isn't tied to a single injury — it's a broader offensive slide Philadelphia is trying to fix with a new coordinator.
Does trading A.J. Brown hurt Jalen Hurts's dynasty outlook?: It's a real loss of a top-tier weapon, and it's fair to price that in. Brown is now New England's WR1 on our depth chart. Philadelphia clearly views the move as part of a broader offensive reset, but the immediate effect is a thinner receiving corps behind DeVonta Smith.
Will Jalen Hurts still get rushing touchdowns near the goal line in 2026?: Very likely. The tush push survived another league-wide effort to ban it this offseason, and new offensive coordinator Sean Mannion has publicly committed to keeping it in Philadelphia's playbook.

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