WR · HOU · #12
Path runs WR9 → WR22 → WR9 — a bounce-back, not a blank slate.
Picked by the Texans in 2021 via a trade with the Panthers.
Dynasty Value Score (DVS)
7,249
Range 6,546–7,860
Based on 2025 production and our 2026 projection
Proven WR in his prime — production and runway both hold.
DVS is our model view, scored on Engine-default half-PPR — not a guaranteed price in your league. Bye weeks and schedule strength are left out on purpose.
2026 Engine Projections
244.1 pts
14.4 PPG · 15.5 games
93.5 rec · 1384.4 rec yds · 8.9 rec TD
Why this DVS moved off a raw projection.
Durability ×0.98
One recent short season (games missed). Production already saw the missed games — this is forward risk only.
Process ×0.99
Process residual (not a second production percentile).
Org environment ×1.01
Team pass/rush volume vs league — scheme residual, not a second projection.
Collins caught 71 passes for 1,117 yards in 2025, finishing WR9. Path runs WR9 → WR22 → WR9 — a bounce-back, not a blank slate. Into 2026, the projection still expects starter production. That's a buy-low window if the price still reflects the rough year, not the recovery.
Dynasty notes from our blog that mention Nico Collins.
Half-PPR points
190.7
PPG
12.7
Positional finish
WR9
Key stats
2025: 12.7 PPG actual vs 12.4 expected from usage (15 REG weeks, half-PPR) — outperformed by 2%.
| Season | Finish | Half-PPR FP | PPG | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Rush yd | Rush TD | Pass yd | Pass TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | WR9 | 190.7 | 12.7 | 71 | 1117 | 6 | 15 | 1 | — | — |
| 2024 | WR22 | 176.6 | 14.7 | 68 | 1006 | 7 | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | WR9 | 220.4 | 14.7 | 80 | 1297 | 8 | 7 | — | — | — |
| 2022 | WR78 | 78.6 | 7.9 | 37 | 481 | 2 | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | WR87 | 67.1 | 4.8 | 33 | 446 | 1 | — | — | — | — |
Career arc
Dashed bar is the 2026 Engine projection, not a completed season.
| Week | Half-PPR FP | Opp | Script | Rec | Rush | Pass |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W17 | 7.2 | LAC | 62 plays · 45% pass | 57 · 3 rec | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 W16 | 7.9 | LV | 61 plays · 57% pass | 59 · 4 rec | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 W15 | 22.0 | ARI | 62 plays · 47% pass | 85 / 2 TD · 3 rec | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 W14 | 14.1 | KC | 62 plays · 50% pass | 121 · 4 rec | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 W13 | 19.0 | IND | 69 plays · 51% pass | 98 · 5 rec | 7 / 1 TD | 0 |
| 2025 W12 | 7.0 | BUF | 56 plays · 54% pass | 55 · 3 rec | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 W11 | 19.7 | TEN | 64 plays · 64% pass | 92 / 1 TD · 9 rec | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 W10 | 19.1 | JAX | 67 plays · 67% pass | 136 · 7 rec | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 W9 | 11.0 | DEN | 68 plays · 59% pass | 75 · 7 rec | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 W7 | 4.7 | SEA | 66 plays · 74% pass | 27 · 4 rec | 0 | 0 |
Weekly Half-PPR
Hover a week for the gap.
Dashed line is expected Half-PPR from usage.
Those opponents
Pass yards they allowed per game in 2025, vs league. Plus is easier.
Snap share
2025 offense · 77.2% mean
target share
Hover a week for the share.
Pass-play participation
83.2%
2025· share of the team’s dropback plays this player was on the field for. Presence, not a charted route rate.
Advanced (2025)
Durability
R3 (89 overall) WR · that slot hit at 18.8% in 2010–2023 classes (n=64; contributor 34.4%). Window is the first three NFL seasons.
2025 season · Next Gen Stats · ranks among NGS sample
74th of 85
84th of 85
8th of 85
13th of 85
Similar age, draft capital, and role — context for outcome bands, not a second DVS.