How do I know if a touchdown spike will repeat?

Count the yards. Lloyd scored twice on 31 yards, and short touchdowns are the least repeatable part of a running back's week.

What makes a quiet receiver game a buying chance?

The team's script and the target count. Collins' team won 26-3 and he still saw seven targets, so the role didn't move.

Should I sell a stash pick when it spikes?

If the spike was touchdowns and the usage didn't change, yes. The role was the reason to own him, and a touchdown week is a good time to be paid for it.

Strategy

Buy-Low, Sell-High: After Week 5

MarShawn Lloyd scored two touchdowns on 31 rushing yards, and Nico Collins and Jonathan Taylor had quiet Sundays at the top of the Week 6 board. Who to sell and who to buy.

By Marcus Reyes · October 13, 2026

MarShawn Lloyd scored two touchdowns on 31 rushing yards, and Nico Collins caught five passes for 56 in a 26-3 win. I'd sell the first and buy the second.

Sell high: MarShawn Lloyd and Jameis Winston

MarShawn Lloyd scored 16.2 on 10 carries for 31 yards, two short rushing touchdowns and one catch. We flagged him in Stash & Grow last Thursday as a cheap bet on a role, and the role held, with 10 of Green Bay's 22 running back carries. The score was touchdowns, though. Kaleb Johnson carried seven times behind him, and our Week 6 projection for Lloyd is 7.9 against Dallas.

Jameis Winston scored 25.7 on 54 attempts, 326 yards, three touchdowns and a lost fumble in New York's 27-27 tie. His completion rate over expected was -6.1 coming into Sunday, and the projection for Week 6 is 13.0 against New Orleans. That's volume, not efficiency.

What I'd do: take a solid asset for either one this week, and expect a quieter Week 6 from both.

Buy low: Nico Collins and Jonathan Taylor

Nico Collins caught five of seven targets for 56 yards and scored 8.1 against 18.1, in Houston's 26-3 win. Winning teams throw less, and that's most of the miss. The projection for Week 6 is 18.1 against Jacksonville, and Tank Dell's return is the one wrinkle, since he projects at 11.5 as a healthy receiver again.

Jonathan Taylor ran 15 times for 45 yards and caught three of four targets for 37, scoring 9.7 against 20.0. Indianapolis lost 34-22 and Daniel Jones threw 44 times, which usually means fewer carries. He faces a Tennessee team that scored three points on Sunday, and he projects at 16.3.

What I'd do: ask about both this week, because an owner who just saw a single-digit score is easier to deal with.

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FAQ

How do I know if a touchdown spike will repeat?: Count the yards. Lloyd scored twice on 31 yards, and short touchdowns are the least repeatable part of a running back's week.
What makes a quiet receiver game a buying chance?: The team's script and the target count. Collins' team won 26-3 and he still saw seven targets, so the role didn't move.
Should I sell a stash pick when it spikes?: If the spike was touchdowns and the usage didn't change, yes. The role was the reason to own him, and a touchdown week is a good time to be paid for it.

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