Rankings
Redzone & Stalled: Week 4
Touchdowns powered Week 4's biggest beats, and a few offenses threw too little for their stars to hit. The largest gaps between projection and score.
By Derek Sallis · October 6, 2026
Touchdowns powered most of Week 4's biggest beats, and a few offenses simply didn't throw enough for their stars to hit. These are the largest gaps between the Engine's final Week 4 projection and the score.
Redzone: touchdown days
Brian Robinson scored 25.2 against a projection of 8.5, and he did it on 14 carries for 62 yards and three touchdowns in Atlanta's 45-24 win Monday night. Bijan Robinson ran 19 times for 145 yards and two scores in the same game.
Javonte Williams scored 28.8 against 14.4 with 19 carries for 62 yards and three touchdowns. Eighteen of those points came from the end zone. Alvin Kamara scored 20.3 against 6.5 on two rushing touchdowns and five catches.
Redzone: volume days
CeeDee Lamb caught 17 of 21 targets for 189 yards, 32.8 against 20.3. Kyren Williams had 16 carries and 10 catches on 13 targets, two touchdowns included, and scored 31.7 against 16.7 in the Rams' 24-20 win at Philadelphia.
Nico Collins was Questionable with a hamstring injury and still caught seven of eight targets for 118 yards and two touchdowns. He scored 27.3 against 13.2 in a 34-30 loss.
Stalled: the offense didn't throw
Garrett Wilson caught three of four targets for 27 yards and scored 4.2 against 14.8. The Jets threw 15 times in a 23-12 loss at Chicago, so there was nothing to catch. Trevor Lawrence went 18 of 23 for 227 yards with no interceptions and scored 13.1 against 22.6. His line was efficient, and it was short.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba caught five of six targets for 76 yards and scored 10.1 against 20.5. Seattle won 30-23 behind 21 carries from Emanuel Wilson, and Sam Darnold threw 22 times.
Stalled: the targets went elsewhere
Jahmyr Gibbs ran 15 times for 46 yards and a touchdown, caught four passes and scored 15.7 against 27.7. Detroit threw 52 times in a 32-26 loss at Carolina, but those throws went to Sam LaPorta (13 targets), Amon-Ra St. Brown (11) and two receivers with eight each.
Matthew Stafford went 32 of 51 for 317 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions, 9.7 against 20.2. The Rams won anyway, because Kyren Williams scored twice.
Our own Stash & Grow name missed too: Kenyon Sadiq drew four targets in Chicago, caught none of them, and finished with a zero against a projection of 8.9.
Hurt, not stalled
Ja'Marr Chase scored 4.2 against 17.8 because a concussion ended his day in the second quarter after three catches. Saquon Barkley scored 1.5 against 13.4 after a hamstring injury cut his afternoon to two carries.
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FAQ
- How should I treat a touchdown-driven beat like Javonte Williams's?
- Count the yards before the points. He had 62 rushing yards, which is a 6-point rushing day, and touchdowns supplied the rest. That kind of game rarely repeats on schedule.
- Why do stars miss their projections when their team wins?
- A team that wins with its defense or its run game doesn't need its receivers. Seattle threw 22 times and won, and Smith-Njigba's number shrank with it.
- Do injury exits count as misses?
- They show up in the box score as misses, but they say nothing about role. Chase and Barkley left early, so their zeros describe their health, not their usage.