Strategy
Biggest Overreactions of Week 4
A running back whose score jumped nearly 9,000 points, a 38-point receiver and a quarterback who finally woke up. Which Week 4 reactions to fade.
By Marcus Reyes · October 5, 2026
Sunday produced a 38-point receiver, a running back whose score jumped by nearly 9,000 and a quarterback who finally woke up. Five reactions in your league deserve a second look.
"Drake Maye is fixed"
Maye scored 26.2 on three touchdowns and 54 rushing yards, and the rushing is the part I trust. Three touchdowns on 37 throws is the part that doesn't repeat on schedule, and he scored 8.0 and 3.8 in the two games before it.
What I'd do: hold Drake Maye, and don't pay a top-five price until he follows this with another game over 20.
"Ollie Gordon is a nine-thousand-point dynasty back"
Ollie Gordon II went from 194 to 9,174 on our board, the biggest jump of the week. That number says Miami's depth chart now lists him first after De'Von Achane's season-ending ACL injury, and the board moved him to the top of the starter range. It doesn't say he's priced like Achane. He ran nine times for 100 yards and a touchdown in a 15-10 loss, took nine of Miami's 16 non-quarterback carries, and Jaylen Wright still had five behind him. Miami scored ten points.
What I'd do:buy Gordon as the starter on a struggling offense, at a backup's price rather than 9,174.
"Matthew Golden is Green Bay's new WR1"
Matthew Golden jumped from 90 to 4,762 as Jayden Reed went to injured reserve and Golden's share of Green Bay's targets grew. The depth chart still lists Christian Watson first, though, and Sunday was three catches on seven targets for 21 yards and a touchdown. Watson caught all three of his targets for 47 yards. Hold Golden if you own him, and don't pay for a role nobody has given him.
"McMillan is a top-three receiver and Lamb's slump never happened"
Tetairoa McMillan caught 14 of 16 targets for 192 yards and two touchdowns, 38.2 points, with Jalen Coker out and 16 of Carolina's 41 throws going his way. CeeDee Lamb caught 17 of 21 for 189 yards and scored 32.8. Both were already priced as top receivers, so Sunday confirmed those prices and didn't raise them. Lamb's Week 1 was five catches for 44 yards, and two games don't rewrite one. Keep both, and wait for a week with Coker back before paying for McMillan's ceiling.
"Monangai took the Bears' job, so Swift is droppable"
The Week 1 buy call on Kyle Monangai is paying off. He ran 30 times for 146 yards and two touchdowns, 60% of Chicago's non-quarterback carries, and his score rose from 689 to 3,300. But the depth chart still lists him second, Chicago won 23-12 with Tyson Bagent at quarterback, and Monangai hurt his thumb late. D'Andre Swift still had 15 carries, which is a meaningful role even in the lesser spot. Hold Swift until Monangai's thumb tells you more.
The calls that held
Three of Wednesday's matchup reads landed. Houston's passing game against Dallas turned into 31 attempts and 23.1 points for C.J. Stroud and a 27.3 game for Nico Collins. Denver's offense against San Francisco managed 14 points in a 24-14 loss. Miami's offense against Minnesota managed 10 points in a 15-10 loss.
One missed. We called Dallas's passing game the tougher side of that Texans game, and Dak Prescott threw for 335 yards while Lamb caught 17 balls on 21 targets.
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FAQ
- Why did Ollie Gordon's score jump so much?
- The depth chart now lists him as Miami's top back, and the board moves a player to the starter's range when that happens. The jump reflects the job, not a new opinion of his talent.
- Should I sell a receiver after one 38-point game?
- Check who was missing first. If the second receiver was out, as Coker was for Carolina, the target share probably shrinks when he returns, and that's when to listen to offers.
- How many carries makes a running back the lead back?
- There's no magic number, but 20 or more in a game he finished is a starter's workload. Monangai had 30. Swift's 15 is closer to a committee share than a benching.