How much do five games of defensive results tell you?

Enough to find the extremes. A defense that has allowed 27 or more in each of its last three games, like Las Vegas, is showing you something, and one that allows 18.6 a game, like San Francisco, is too.

Does a good matchup matter if a quarterback is hurt?

It matters less. Huntley or Bagent starting for a hurt star lowers the whole offense's ceiling, so check the quarterback's status before you trust the defense he faces.

Why is the London game a lineup trap?

It kicks off at 9:30 AM ET, hours before the early window. Anyone who waits for Sunday-morning news may find the lineup already locked.

Rankings

Week 6 Matchups: Who's Set Up to Win

Las Vegas has allowed 27, 30 and 45 points in its last three games and Dallas has allowed 34, 30 and 24. Week 6 matchups to act on, with four teams on bye.

By Derek Sallis · October 14, 2026

Las Vegas has allowed 27, 30 and 45 points in its last three games, and Buffalo's offense arrives Sunday afternoon with Josh Allen coming off a 30.5. Four teams are on bye, so a few of the best matchups belong to players you can't start.

Thursday night: Seattle at Denver

Seattle's defense has allowed 33, 23 and 32 points over its last three games, which is the case for Denver's side even though Bo Nix projects at 14.8, down from 19.8 last week. J.K. Dobbins projects at 9.4. On Seattle's side, Jaxon Smith-Njigba is Questionable at 13.1 after two limited days with an ankle injury, and Sam Darnold is at 13.5.

Favorable: Buffalo at Las Vegas

The Raiders gave up 27 to New Orleans, 30 to Kansas City and 45 to New England, where Drake Maye threw four touchdowns. Josh Allen projects at 23.5 and James Cook at 19.1. Buffalo's defense is no wall either, having allowed 34 to the Rams on Monday night, which helps Kirk Cousins (20.8) and Brock Bowers (19.7).

Favorable: Dallas at Green Bay

Dallas has allowed 34 to Baltimore, 30 to Houston and 24 to Tampa Bay. Jordan Love projects at 18.7 and Christian Watson at 14.1, after Watson caught six passes for 143 yards and two touchdowns against Chicago. The Cowboys' side has the same appeal. Dak Prescott is at 19.9 and George Pickens at 14.6, and CeeDee Lamb is Questionable with a quad injury.

Favorable: Atlanta at Chicago

Chicago gave up 31 to Green Bay, and NBC Sports calls Atlanta's defense a pass funnel that could help Caleb Williams if he returns. Bijan Robinson projects at 20.2 and Drake London at 14.7, but the quarterback is the question. Michael Penix Jr.'s ribs aren't considered serious, and Tua Tagovailoa starts if he can't go.

Two things to plan around

Houston and Jacksonville play in London at 9:30 AM ET, so lineups lock before most people set them. Nico Collins projects at 18.1 and C.J. Stroud at 20.3, and the matchup is fine, but the clock is the risk.

Washington visits San Francisco on Monday night. The 49ers are 5-0, but they've allowed 7, 13, 30, 14 and 29 points, an average of 18.6, so they're good and not a lock to stop anyone.

We'd normally name receiver-versus-corner matchups here, but coverage assignments don't leak until Thursday or Friday. Friday's injury report carries the final word on who plays.

Matchup-adjusted ranks are on the start/sit board. Full position tables are in the Week 6 rankings. NextDyne is currently in early access — join the waitlist and lock in Founding Franchise status at $2.00/player for life.

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FAQ

How much do five games of defensive results tell you?: Enough to find the extremes. A defense that has allowed 27 or more in each of its last three games, like Las Vegas, is showing you something, and one that allows 18.6 a game, like San Francisco, is too.
Does a good matchup matter if a quarterback is hurt?: It matters less. Huntley or Bagent starting for a hurt star lowers the whole offense's ceiling, so check the quarterback's status before you trust the defense he faces.
Why is the London game a lineup trap?: It kicks off at 9:30 AM ET, hours before the early window. Anyone who waits for Sunday-morning news may find the lineup already locked.

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