QB · NYJ · #7
QB14 slipped to QB24 last year; that's the warning; the downside gets steeper at 35.9.
Traded from LV to NYJ (Mar 10, 2026).
Dynasty Value Score (DVS)
765
Range 764–765
Based on 2025 production and our 2026 projection
Peak window — still valuable, but age is already shaping the dynasty price.
DVS is our model view, scored on Engine-default half-PPR — not a guaranteed price in your league. Bye weeks and schedule strength are left out on purpose.
2026 Engine Projections
201.5 pts
11.9 PPG · 15.0 games
3267 pass yds · 20.5 pass TD · 117.7 rush yds
Why this DVS moved off a raw projection.
Process ×0.98
Process residual (not a second production percentile).
Org environment ×0.99
Team pass/rush volume vs league — scheme residual, not a second projection.
Smith threw for 3,025 yards and 19 TDs in 2025, finishing QB24. He scored about 10% less than his touches said he should. Production trend is soft: QB14 → QB24 over the last two seasons. At 36, age is the lead risk for a QB. Treat this as a watch, not a hold-forever — confirm the dip is real before adding more exposure.
Half-PPR points
173.9
PPG
11.6
Positional finish
QB24
Key stats
2025: 11.6 PPG actual vs 12.9 expected from usage (15 REG weeks, half-PPR) — underperformed by 10%.
| Season | Finish | Half-PPR FP | PPG | Pass yd | Pass TD | Rush yd | Rush TD | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | QB24 | 173.9 | 11.6 | 3025 | 19 | 109 | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | QB14 | 266.0 | 15.6 | 4320 | 21 | 272 | 2 | — | — | — |
| 2023 | QB19 | 226.8 | 15.1 | 3624 | 20 | 155 | 1 | 1 | -2 | — |
| 2022 | QB5 | 303.9 | 17.9 | 4282 | 30 | 366 | 1 | — | — | — |
| 2021 | QB40 | 54.3 | 13.6 | 702 | 5 | 42 | 1 | — | — | — |
| 2020 | QB75 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 33 | — | -2 | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | QB71 | -1.5 | -0.4 | 8 | — | 2 | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | QB53 | 9.7 | 4.9 | 212 | 1 | 12 | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | QB55 | 7.9 | 4.0 | 126 | 1 | 9 | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | QB51 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 265 | 2 | 34 | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | QB26 | 150.8 | 10.8 | 2525 | 13 | 238 | 1 | — | — | — |
| 2013 | QB20 | 194.2 | 12.1 | 3046 | 12 | 366 | 6 | 1 | 13 | — |
Career arc
Dashed bar is the 2026 Engine projection, not a completed season.
| Week | Half-PPR FP | Opp | Script | Pass | Rush | Rec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W17 | 7.1 | NYG | 50 plays · 60% pass | 176 / 1 TD | 1 | 0 |
| 2025 W16 | 14.0 | HOU | 50 plays · 46% pass | 201 / 2 TD | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 W14 | 9.0 | DEN | 44 plays · 73% pass | 116 / 1 TD | 4 | 0 |
| 2025 W13 | 12.0 | LAC | 41 plays · 56% pass | 165 / 2 TD | -6 | 0 |
| 2025 W12 | 14.2 | CLE | 65 plays · 68% pass | 285 / 1 TD | 8 | 0 |
| 2025 W11 | 12.9 | DAL | 54 plays · 78% pass | 238 / 1 TD | 14 | 0 |
| 2025 W10 | 4.4 | DEN | 52 plays · 52% pass | 143 | 7 | 0 |
| 2025 W9 | 26.3 | JAX | 58 plays · 67% pass | 284 / 4 TD | 9 | 0 |
| 2025 W7 | 2.8 | KC | 29 plays · 62% pass | 67 | 1 | 0 |
| 2025 W6 | 8.7 | TEN | 55 plays · 42% pass | 174 / 1 TD | -3 | 0 |
Weekly Half-PPR
Hover a week for the gap.
Dashed line is expected Half-PPR from usage.
Those opponents
Pass yards they allowed per game in 2025, vs league. Plus is easier.
Snap share
2025 offense · 96.5% mean
pass-attempt share
Hover a week for the share.
Pass-play participation
96.7%
2025· share of the team’s dropback plays this player was on the field for. Presence, not a charted route rate.
Advanced (2025)
Durability
R2 (39 overall) QB · that slot hit at 30.8% in 2010–2023 classes (n=13; contributor 30.8%). Window is the first three NFL seasons.
2025 season · Next Gen Stats · ranks among NGS sample
19th of 42
23rd of 42
17th of 42
37th of 42
Similar age, draft capital, and role — context for outcome bands, not a second DVS.