Rankings
Week 7 Monday Morning QB: Nix and Willis Cleared Their Ceilings by Running
Dynasty quarterback recap for Week 7: Burrow's four touchdowns, Nix and Willis beating their ceilings on the ground, and where our projections missed.
By Derek Sallis · October 26, 2026
Four quarterbacks finished above the top of our projected range in Week 7, and two of them got there with their legs. Bo Nix and Malik Willis ran 15 times for two touchdowns, and those runs made up half of Nix's points and more than a third of Willis's.
This column covers Thursday and Sunday. Monday night's Cowboys and Eagles game isn't counted.
Burrow led the board
Joe Burrow threw four touchdowns and no interceptions in Cincinnati's 35-13 win over Baltimore. His 28.9 half-PPR points are the most of any quarterback through Sunday, and he needed only 30 attempts to get there. We projected 24.1, so this was a good day for him and not a surprise.
Lamar Jackson missed a third straight week with an ankle injury, and Tyler Huntley played in his place. Huntley threw for 298 yards but had one touchdown and one interception, and he finished at 15.1 against our 20.4. Yards without touchdowns pay poorly.
Maye threw the most and lost
Drake Maye passed for 321 yards Thursday night, more than anyone this week, and New England still lost 30-24 in Chicago. A rushing touchdown lifted him to 27.4. On the other side, Caleb Williams threw for 308 and scored 22.1.
Deshaun Watson also threw for 308 without a touchdown pass, and he still scored 18.2 because he ran one in. Seven quarterbacks passed for 290 or more, and their scores ran from 15.1 to 28.9. Passing yards alone didn't sort them. Touchdowns did.
The runners
Nix went 15 of 29 for 222 yards and one touchdown in Denver's 30-16 win over Arizona. The best part of his day came on seven carries, which produced a touchdown and 13.3 points. This season he has completed about five points fewer passes per hundred than his throws should produce, over 135 attempts. If the passing stays ordinary, he needs the runs to keep coming.
Willis did the same thing in Miami's 28-25 win over the Jets. He ran eight times for a score and took 9.7 of his 26.0 points on the ground. His accuracy sits about four points under expected over 103 attempts.
The scoring explains why this matters. A rushing yard is worth 2.5 passing yards, and a rushing touchdown pays 6 points to a passing touchdown's 4. League-wide, starting quarterbacks ran for 17.0 yards a game from 2021 to 2025, up from 14.2 in the five years before, while their passing yards per game fell from 245 to 228. The position now gets more of its points from a second source.
Two who threw their way over
Geno Smith threw 23 of 30 for 287 yards and three touchdowns in the Jets' loss, and his 23.5 beat a ceiling of 17.4. He has the best accuracy of this group, about ten points above expected over 117 attempts. That separates his day from Nix's. Smith's numbers came from throws a defense can't take away, and Nix's came from his feet.
Michael Penix Jr. went 25 of 34 for 213 yards and three touchdowns in Atlanta's 29-20 win over San Francisco. It was his second straight game over 20 points, after 23.1 in Week 6, and our projections had him near 8 both times. He returned from a torn ACL to start in Week 3. Two good games are a start, and three or four more would tell us whether the price should move.
Four who missed
Bryce Young scored 5.4 against a 17.1 projection, with two interceptions in a 43-13 loss to Tampa Bay. He has completed more passes than expected this season, so the picks drove the day and the accuracy didn't.
Brock Purdy threw for 288 yards and two interceptions and scored 12.0, with Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel both out. Patrick Mahomes scored 6.0 in a 20-3 loss to Seattle without Rashee Rice. Missing receivers explain more of those two lines than the quarterbacks do.
Baker Mayfield scored 6.7 on the winning side of Young's game. Tampa Bay led by so much that it threw 11 passes and ran 49 times. That's game script.
Where we were wrong
Twenty-six starters threw at least 10 passes. Sixteen landed inside our projected range, four finished above it and six fell below. We missed by 6.5 points on average. The six below were Young, Mahomes, Mayfield, Purdy, Cam Ward and Daniel Jones.
Penix is the miss that stings. We were off by more than 12 points in each of the last two weeks. You can test his price in the Dynasty Trade Calculator.
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FAQ
- Who was the top fantasy quarterback in Week 7?
- Joe Burrow, with 28.9 half-PPR points through Sunday's games. Monday night's Cowboys and Eagles game could change that.
- Why do running quarterbacks score so much in half-PPR?
- A rushing yard is worth 2.5 passing yards in our scoring, and a rushing touchdown is worth 6 points to a passing touchdown's 4. Nix got 13.3 of his 26.2 points on seven carries.
- Is Michael Penix Jr. a dynasty starter after two 20-point games?
- Two games is a short record. His value score rose when he took the job, and our projections missed him by wide margins both times. A few more weeks will show whether 20 points a game holds. You can test his price in the Dynasty Trade Calculator.