QB · TB · #6
Recent form cooled from QB4 to QB12 — watch whether that's noise or a real step down.
Traded from CLE to CAR (Jul 6, 2022).
Dynasty Value Score (DVS)
7,541
Range 6,844–8,226
Based on 2025 production and our 2026 projection
Proven QB in his prime — production and runway both hold.
DVS is our model view, scored on Engine-default half-PPR — not a guaranteed price in your league. Bye weeks and schedule strength are left out on purpose.
2026 Engine Projections
321.9 pts
18.9 PPG · 16.5 games
4378.5 pass yds · 30.4 pass TD · 381.9 rush yds
Why this DVS moved off a raw projection.
Process ×0.98
Process residual (not a second production percentile).
Versatility ×1.02
Light floor from multi-role usage (rush+receive or dual-threat).
Mayfield threw for 3,693 yards and 26 TDs in 2025, finishing QB12. QB4 slipped to QB12 last year; that's the warning. The 2026 projection keeps him in every-week starter range. Treat this as a watch, not a hold-forever — confirm the dip is real before adding more exposure.
Dynasty notes from our blog that mention Baker Mayfield.
5 Breakout Dynasty WRs to Target in 2026
Five 2026 dynasty WR names with a real role change: a $114 million Colts bet, a hamstring hangover that hid a top-10 start, and a Browns rookie still listed WR3.
Jalen Hurts Enters a Reboot Year — Is His Dynasty Price Still Fair?
Jalen Hurts lost his top receiver and his fourth offensive coordinator in six years. Here's an honest look at his dynasty value heading into 2026.
Lamar Jackson Is 29 — Is the Rushing Floor Starting to Crack?
Lamar Jackson finished QB20 in an injury-wrecked 2025. Here's an honest look at whether it's a one-year dip or the start of a real decline.
Is Patrick Mahomes a Safe Dynasty Pick After ACL Tear?
Patrick Mahomes tore his ACL and LCL in December. Here's what his recovery timeline means for his dynasty value heading into 2026.
Half-PPR points
271.9
PPG
16.0
Positional finish
QB12
Key stats
2025: 16.0 PPG actual vs 16.5 expected from usage (17 REG weeks, half-PPR) — underperformed by 3%.
| Season | Finish | Half-PPR FP | PPG | Pass yd | Pass TD | Rush yd | Rush TD | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | QB12 | 271.9 | 16.0 | 3693 | 26 | 382 | 1 | — | — | — |
| 2024 | QB4 | 365.8 | 21.5 | 4500 | 41 | 378 | 3 | — | — | — |
| 2023 | QB10 | 274.1 | 16.1 | 4044 | 28 | 163 | 1 | — | — | — |
| 2022 | QB29 | 121.4 | 10.1 | 2163 | 10 | 89 | 1 | — | — | — |
| 2021 | QB26 | 180.9 | 12.9 | 3010 | 17 | 134 | 1 | — | 11 | — |
| 2020 | QB17 | 248.1 | 15.5 | 3563 | 26 | 165 | 1 | 1 | 6 | — |
| 2019 | QB19 | 229.2 | 14.3 | 3827 | 22 | 141 | 3 | — | — | — |
| 2018 | QB16 | 240.1 | 17.2 | 3725 | 27 | 131 | — | — | — | — |
Career arc
Dashed bar is the 2026 Engine projection, not a completed season.
| Week | Half-PPR FP | Opp | Script | Pass | Rush | Rec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W18 | 13.2 | CAR | 64 plays · 34% pass | 203 / 1 TD | 31 | 0 |
| 2025 W17 | 17.4 | MIA | 60 plays · 73% pass | 346 / 2 TD | 16 | 0 |
| 2025 W16 | 12.7 | CAR | 59 plays · 44% pass | 145 / 1 TD | 49 | 0 |
| 2025 W15 | 19.2 | ATL | 56 plays · 61% pass | 277 / 2 TD | 1 | 0 |
| 2025 W14 | 11.1 | NO | 69 plays · 44% pass | 122 / 1 TD | 42 | 0 |
| 2025 W13 | 14.5 | ARI | 55 plays · 51% pass | 194 / 1 TD | 27 | 0 |
| 2025 W12 | 3.5 | LA | 63 plays · 54% pass | 41 / 1 TD | 19 | 0 |
| 2025 W11 | 16.8 | BUF | 67 plays · 42% pass | 173 / 1 TD | 39 / 1 TD | 0 |
| 2025 W10 | 22.9 | NE | 64 plays · 67% pass | 273 / 3 TD | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 W8 | 4.1 | NO | 53 plays · 45% pass | 152 | 0 | 0 |
Weekly Half-PPR
Hover a week for the gap.
Dashed line is expected Half-PPR from usage.
Those opponents
Pass yards they allowed per game in 2025, vs league. Plus is easier.
Snap share
2025 offense · 97.1% mean
pass-attempt share
Hover a week for the share.
Pass-play participation
97.3%
2025· share of the team’s dropback plays this player was on the field for. Presence, not a charted route rate.
Advanced (2025)
Durability
R1 (1 overall) QB · that slot hit at 39.5% in 2010–2023 classes (n=43; contributor 62.8%). Window is the first three NFL seasons.
2025 season · Next Gen Stats · ranks among NGS sample
25th of 42
5th of 42
26th of 42
16th of 42
Similar age, draft capital, and role — context for outcome bands, not a second DVS.