QB · KC · #15
Patrick MahomesQ
- Height
- HT 6'2"
- Weight
- WT 225 lbs
- Birth date
- Sep 17, 1995 (age 31)
- College
- Texas Tech
Played a short 2026 (1 games) — health is the nearer question than talent.
Picked by the Chiefs in 2017 via a trade with the Bills.
Dynasty Value Score (DVS)
7,797
Range 7,074–8,508
Based on 2025 production and our 2026 projection
Proven QB in his prime — production and runway both hold.
DVS is our model view, scored on Engine-default half-PPR — not a guaranteed price in your league. Bye weeks and schedule strength are left out on purpose.
2026 Engine Projections
327.6 pts
19.3 PPG · 15.0 games
4358 pass yds · 27.5 pass TD · 441.5 rush yds
Dynasty Value Score over time
History starts Preseason 2026.
Player quality
Why this DVS moved off a raw projection.
Durability ×0.98
One recent short season (games missed). Production already saw the missed games — this is forward risk only.
Process ×0.98
Process residual (not a second production percentile).
Versatility ×1.02
Light floor from multi-role usage (rush+receive or dual-threat).
Org environment ×1.01
Team pass/rush volume vs league — scheme residual, not a second projection.
Quick answer
HoldMahomes threw for 184 yards and 2 TDs in 2026, finishing QB9. 2026 stopped at 1 games; staying on the field is the swing factor. The 2026 projection keeps him in every-week starter range. This reads as a hold — nothing in the recent signal pushes it toward a buy or a sell.
NextDyne coverage
Dynasty notes from our blog that mention Patrick Mahomes.
- StrategyNextDyne
Jalen Hurts Enters a Reboot Year — Is His Dynasty Price Still Fair?
Jalen Hurts lost his top receiver and his fourth offensive coordinator in six years. Here's an honest look at his dynasty value heading into 2026.
- StrategyNextDyne
Lamar Jackson Is 29 — Is the Rushing Floor Starting to Crack?
Lamar Jackson finished QB20 in an injury-wrecked 2025. Here's an honest look at whether it's a one-year dip or the start of a real decline.
- StrategyNextDyne
Is Patrick Mahomes a Safe Dynasty Pick After ACL Tear?
Patrick Mahomes tore his ACL and LCL in December. Here's what his recovery timeline means for his dynasty value heading into 2026.
- StrategyNextDyne
Is It Time to Cut Ties With Travis Kelce in Dynasty?
Kelce's contract is structured for retirement in 2027. He's still TE3-caliber, but the dynasty window is closing fast. Here's the sell case.
2026 fantasy highlights
Half-PPR points
21.7
PPG
21.7
Positional finish
QB9
Key stats
- Pass yds: 184 (QB22)
- Pass TD: 2 (QB9)
Career (Half-PPR)
| Season | Finish | Half-PPR FP | PPG | Pass yd | Pass TD | Rush yd | Rush TD | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | QB9 | 21.7 | 21.7 | 184 | 2 | 23 | 1 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | QB11 | 285.2 | 20.4 | 3587 | 22 | 422 | 5 | 1 | -10 | — |
| 2024 | QB12 | 282.5 | 17.7 | 3928 | 26 | 307 | 2 | 1 | 2 | — |
| 2023 | QB8 | 280.2 | 17.5 | 4183 | 27 | 389 | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | QB1 | 416.9 | 24.5 | 5250 | 41 | 358 | 4 | 1 | 6 | — |
| 2021 | QB4 | 361.7 | 21.3 | 4839 | 37 | 381 | 2 | — | — | — |
| 2020 | QB4 | 374.4 | 25.0 | 4740 | 38 | 308 | 2 | — | — | — |
| 2019 | QB7 | 287.0 | 20.5 | 4031 | 26 | 218 | 2 | — | — | — |
| 2018 | QB1 | 417.1 | 26.1 | 5097 | 50 | 272 | 2 | — | — | — |
| 2017 | QB51 | 10.4 | 10.4 | 284 | — | 10 | — | — | — | — |
Career arc
Dashed bar is the 2026 Engine projection, not a completed season.
Recent games (2026)
| Week | Half-PPR FP | Opp | Script | Pass | Rush | Rec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W1 | 21.7 | DEN | 65 plays · 42% pass | 184 / 2 TD | 23 / 1 TD | 0 |
Week 1 Engine grade
Projected 17.6 · scored 21.7 half-PPR · inside the floor–ceiling band. Miss -4.1.
Those opponents
Pass yards they allowed per game in 2026, vs league. Plus is easier.
- DEN-19% · 184 pass yards
Usage and availability
Snap share
2025 offense · 97.4% mean
Pass-play participation
99.1%
2025· share of the team’s dropback plays this player was on the field for. Presence, not a charted route rate.
Advanced (2025)
- Pressure rate
- 24.0%
- On-target throw %
- 74.3%
- Avg time in pocket
- 2.2s
Durability
- 202316 G
- 202416 G
- 202514 G
- 15.0 projected games — injury history is priced as risk, not a short 2026 slate.
R1 (10 overall) QB · that slot hit at 39.5% in 2010–2023 classes (n=43; contributor 62.8%). Window is the first three NFL seasons.
Next Gen Stats
2025 season · Next Gen Stats · ranks among NGS sample
- Time to throw
- 2.79s
- Aggressiveness
- 12.9%
- CPOE
- -2.9pp
- Air yds to sticks
- -0.9yd
15th of 42
32nd of 42
34th of 42
20th of 42
Historical comps
Similar age, draft capital, and role — context for outcome bands, not a second DVS.
FAQ
- What is Patrick Mahomes's dynasty value on NextDyne?
- Mahomes scores 7,797 out of 10,000. The score blends 2025 production with our 2026 projection. Superflex and TE Premium shift the rankings; the trade calculator shows how.
- What is Patrick Mahomes's 2026 Engine Projection?
- We project 19.3 half-PPR points per game for 2026. That rate feeds Value Score — multiply by games and your league’s scoring if you want a season total.
- How are season fantasy points calculated on this page?
- Season totals and the recent game log use Half-PPR so every public profile matches our Engine board. Your league’s scoring shows up inside the app.
- Should I trade for Patrick Mahomes in dynasty right now?
- This reads as a hold — nothing in the recent signal pushes it toward a buy or a sell. Run the actual numbers on the dynasty trade calculator before you commit — stance is a starting point, not a price.