Week 7 Overreactions: Don't Pay for Pollard, Don't Sell Gibbs

Don't trade for Tony Pollard, and don't sell Jahmyr Gibbs. Pollard scored 35.0 points Sunday and 18 of them came from three touchdowns. Gibbs carried 29 times and scored 14.8 with no touchdown and one lost fumble.

One game pushed opinion the wrong way on both. This is what I'd believe and what I wouldn't.

Pollard: believe the carries, fade the touchdowns

Tony Pollard ran 25 times for 129 yards and three scores in Tennessee's 27-24 loss to Cleveland. That was nearly every carry the Titans gave a non-quarterback, because Tyjae Spears was out with a knee injury.

Before Sunday his best game was 12.0 and his average was 7.9. Nobody scores three touchdowns a week, and if Spears comes back the carries shrink too. Pollard is a fine rental. He's a bad price after 35 points.

Two touchdown spikes with nothing behind them

Davis Allen scored 16.0 on four catches for 20 yards and two touchdowns. He averages 1.6. Mason Taylor scored 22.7 on five catches for 62 yards and two scores, against an average of 3.3. Neither player draws more than a fifth of his team's throws.

Those are touchdown games, not role changes. Leave them on waivers.

Three spikes with a reason to look closer

KC Concepcion caught eight passes on 10 targets for 129 yards and no touchdown. That's more than a quarter of Cleveland's throws, and his previous best was 8.9. Luck didn't produce that line. Targets did.

Tee Higgins had seven targets and 148 yards in a game where Cincinnati threw only 30 times. Bucky Irving ran 24 times for two scores, but Tampa Bay was far ahead and threw just 11 passes. I'd believe the first two and treat the third as game script.

Luther Burden III went for 130 yards on four catches, a long gain every time he touched it on a day when Chicago barely threw his way. That's a yardage fluke and not a new role. Don't pay for it.

The dips I wouldn't sell on

Gibbs took 29 of Detroit's 31 carries by non-quarterbacks and added five catches. A lost fumble cost him two points. He averaged 28.0 over his first five games. A 14.8 on that workload is a floor, and anyone in your league who panics should get a call from you.

Justin Jefferson caught four of seven targets for 44 yards, but Minnesota threw only 24 times in a 16-10 win. His share of the throws was fine. Tetairoa McMillan scored 6.0 in a 43-13 loss that never gave Carolina a reason to pass well.

Brock Purdy and Bryce Young each threw two interceptions. Purdy played without Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel. Patrick Mahomes scored 6.0 without Rashee Rice in a 20-3 loss. I'd hold all three.

The dip that worries me

Jalen Coker caught one of four targets for nine yards, a week after six catches for 97 on 13 targets. His share of Carolina's throws fell to about one in eight. That is a usage drop, and it's the only dud here where the work went away.

His dynasty value score still rose by 3,654 points this week, because last week's big game is still in the recent-weeks mix. Pollard's 35-point day moved his by 11. Small samples fool our numbers too, and Coker's looks wrong.

Workloads that earned the number

Ollie Gordon II ran 25 times for 103 yards and a score, three of every four carries Miami gave a non-quarterback. Blake Corum ran 17 times for 93 and a score, one more carry than Kyren Williams, and his carries have gone 5, 9, 17 over three weeks. Emanuel Wilson carried 24 times in Seattle with Zach Charbonnet out, after averaging 9.0 before this week.

We got some wrong ourselves. Bo Nix, Malik Willis, Geno Smith and Michael Penix Jr. all finished above the top of our projected range, and Penix has done it two weeks running. Nix and Willis got there by running, and Smith's accuracy backs up his line.