WR · FA · #17
Sterling Shepard
- Height
- HT 5'10"
- Weight
- WT 194 lbs
- Birth date
- Feb 10, 1993 (age 33.6)
- College
- Oklahoma
Coming off a real climb — WR91 to WR82 tells the story better than age; the downside gets steeper at 33.6.
Dynasty Value Score (DVS)
0
Range 68–218
Based on 2025 production and our 2026 projection
Depth/upside bet — WR role isn't locked starter volume yet.
DVS is our model view, scored on Engine-default half-PPR — not a guaranteed price in your league. Bye weeks and schedule strength are left out on purpose.
2026 Engine Projections
19.1 pts
1.1 PPG · 7.0 games
9.4 rec · 97.9 rec yds · 0.4 rec TD
Player quality
Why this DVS moved off a raw projection.
Durability ×0.98
3 of last 3 seasons under 15 games — slight availability risk, not a short 2026 slate.
Process ×0.99
Process residual (not a second production percentile).
Quick answer
BuyShepard caught 39 passes for 371 yards in 2025, finishing WR82. He scored about 17% less than his touches said he should. The last two seasons moved from WR91 to WR82 — that's the dynasty read. He's 34 now, old enough that decline risk is real. The trend line says buy: this is a climb, not a name you're paying nostalgia tax for.
2025 fantasy highlights
Half-PPR points
62.5
PPG
4.8
Positional finish
WR82
Key stats
- Rec: 39 (WR57)
- Rec yds: 371 (WR75)
- Rec TD: 1 (WR95)
2025: 4.8 PPG actual vs 5.8 expected from usage (13 REG weeks, half-PPR) — underperformed by 17%.
Career (Half-PPR)
| Season | Finish | Half-PPR FP | PPG | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Rush yd | Rush TD | Pass yd | Pass TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | WR82 | 62.5 | 4.8 | 39 | 371 | 1 | 19 | — | — | — |
| 2024 | WR91 | 64.3 | 4.9 | 32 | 334 | 1 | 69 | — | — | — |
| 2023 | WR159 | 15.3 | 1.5 | 10 | 57 | 1 | 6 | — | — | — |
| 2022 | WR132 | 27.9 | 9.3 | 13 | 154 | 1 | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | WR98 | 59.7 | 8.5 | 36 | 366 | 1 | -9 | — | — | — |
| 2020 | WR46 | 129.5 | 10.8 | 66 | 656 | 3 | 49 | 1 | — | — |
| 2019 | WR50 | 113.3 | 11.3 | 57 | 576 | 3 | 72 | — | — | — |
| 2018 | WR30 | 149.5 | 9.3 | 66 | 872 | 4 | 33 | — | — | — |
| 2017 | WR43 | 115.0 | 10.5 | 59 | 731 | 2 | 4 | — | — | — |
| 2016 | WR36 | 151.9 | 9.5 | 65 | 683 | 8 | 31 | — | — | — |
Career arc
Dashed bar is the 2026 Engine projection, not a completed season.
Recent games (2025)
| Week | Half-PPR FP | Opp | Script | Rec | Rush | Pass |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W14 | 1.0 | NO | 69 plays · 44% pass | 5 · 1 rec | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 W13 | 1.0 | ARI | 55 plays · 51% pass | 5 · 1 rec | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 W12 | 2.7 | LA | 63 plays · 54% pass | 12 · 3 rec | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 W11 | 8.1 | BUF | 67 plays · 42% pass | 54 · 4 rec | 7 | 0 |
| 2025 W10 | 4.6 | NE | 64 plays · 67% pass | 20 · 3 rec | 11 | 0 |
| 2025 W8 | 1.3 | NO | 53 plays · 45% pass | 8 · 1 rec | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 W7 | 4.0 | DET | 62 plays · 81% pass | 25 · 7 rec | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 W6 | 6.1 | SF | 49 plays · 47% pass | 51 · 2 rec | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 W5 | 9.9 | SEA | 57 plays · 58% pass | 24 / 1 TD · 4 rec | -5 | 0 |
| 2025 W4 | 3.0 | PHI | 66 plays · 61% pass | 14 · 2 rec | 6 | 0 |
Weekly Half-PPR
Hover a week for the gap.
Dashed line is expected Half-PPR from usage.
Those opponents
Pass yards they allowed per game in 2025, vs league. Plus is easier.
- NO-13% · 196 pass yards
- ARI+8% · 243 pass yards
- LA+4% · 235 pass yards
- BUF-24% · 170 pass yards
- NE-8% · 207 pass yards
- DET+5% · 237 pass yards
- SF+7% · 242 pass yards
- SEA-5% · 213 pass yards
- PHI-9% · 205 pass yards
Usage and availability
Snap share
2025 offense · 56.2% mean
target share
Hover a week for the share.
Pass-play participation
70.8%
2025· share of the team’s dropback plays this player was on the field for. Presence, not a charted route rate.
Advanced (2025)
- Broken tackles
- 2
- Avg depth of target
- 8.5
- Drop %
- 0.0%
Durability
- 202310 G
- 202413 G · 1 Out
- 202513 G
- 7.0 projected games — injury history is priced as risk, not a short 2026 slate.
R2 (40 overall) WR · that slot hit at 29.9% in 2010–2023 classes (n=67; contributor 58.2%). Window is the first three NFL seasons.
Next Gen Stats
2025 season · Next Gen Stats · ranks among NGS sample
- Separation
- 3.21yd
- Cushion
- 6.03yd
- YAC above expected
- 0.22yd
- Air yards share
- 10.6%
21st of 85
51st of 85
55th of 85
72nd of 85
Historical comps
Similar age, draft capital, and role — context for outcome bands, not a second DVS.
FAQ
- What is Sterling Shepard's dynasty value on NextDyne?
- Shepard scores 0 out of 10,000. The score blends 2025 production with our 2026 projection. Superflex and TE Premium shift the rankings; the trade calculator shows how.
- What is Sterling Shepard's 2026 Engine Projection?
- We project 1.1 half-PPR points per game for 2026. That rate feeds Value Score — multiply by games and your league’s scoring if you want a season total.
- How are season fantasy points calculated on this page?
- Season totals and the recent game log use Half-PPR so every public profile matches our Engine board. Your league’s scoring shows up inside the app.
- Should I trade for Sterling Shepard in dynasty right now?
- The trend line says buy: this is a climb, not a name you're paying nostalgia tax for. Run the actual numbers on the dynasty trade calculator before you commit — stance is a starting point, not a price.