QB · JAX · #16
2026 stopped at 1 games; staying on the field is the swing factor.
Dynasty Value Score (DVS)
6,985
Range 6,345–7,614
Based on 2025 production and our 2026 projection
Proven QB in his prime — production and runway both hold.
DVS is our model view, scored on Engine-default half-PPR — not a guaranteed price in your league. Bye weeks and schedule strength are left out on purpose.
2026 Engine Projections
290.6 pts
17.1 PPG · 15.0 games
3953.5 pass yds · 24.9 pass TD · 324.1 rush yds
History starts Preseason 2026.
Why this DVS moved off a raw projection.
Durability ×0.98
One recent short season (games missed). Production already saw the missed games — this is forward risk only.
Process ×0.98
Process residual (not a second production percentile).
Versatility ×1.02
Light floor from multi-role usage (rush+receive or dual-threat).
Lawrence threw for 245 yards and 4 TDs in 2026, finishing QB5. Expect range, not a smooth curve — recent finishes span QB4 to QB27. 2026 stopped at 1 games; staying on the field is the swing factor. This is a hold, not a sell or a buy — the swings mean the price should already reflect the risk.
Dynasty notes from our blog that mention Trevor Lawrence.
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Half-PPR points
26.1
PPG
26.1
Positional finish
QB5
Key stats
| Season | Finish | Half-PPR FP | PPG | Pass yd | Pass TD | Rush yd | Rush TD | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | QB5 | 26.1 | 26.1 | 245 | 4 | 3 | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | QB4 | 338.2 | 19.9 | 4007 | 29 | 359 | 9 | — | — | — |
| 2024 | QB27 | 145.2 | 14.5 | 2045 | 11 | 119 | 3 | — | -5 | — |
| 2023 | QB12 | 262.5 | 16.4 | 4016 | 21 | 339 | 4 | — | — | — |
| 2022 | QB7 | 295.6 | 17.4 | 4113 | 25 | 291 | 5 | — | — | — |
| 2021 | QB23 | 199.0 | 11.7 | 3641 | 12 | 334 | 2 | — | — | — |
Career arc
Dashed bar is the 2026 Engine projection, not a completed season.
| Week | Half-PPR FP | Opp | Script | Pass | Rush | Rec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W1 | 26.1 | CLE | 55 plays · 42% pass | 245 / 4 TD | 3 | 0 |
Week 1 Engine grade
Projected 16.5 · scored 26.1 half-PPR · outside the floor–ceiling band. Miss -9.6.
Those opponents
Pass yards they allowed per game in 2026, vs league. Plus is easier.
Snap share
2025 offense · 96.7% mean
Pass-play participation
99.5%
2025· share of the team’s dropback plays this player was on the field for. Presence, not a charted route rate.
Advanced (2025)
Durability
R1 (1 overall) QB · that slot hit at 39.5% in 2010–2023 classes (n=43; contributor 62.8%). Window is the first three NFL seasons.
2025 season · Next Gen Stats · ranks among NGS sample
29th of 42
14th of 42
32nd of 42
10th of 42
Similar age, draft capital, and role — context for outcome bands, not a second DVS.