TE · FA · #86
Production trend is soft: TE8 → TE20 over the last two seasons; the downside gets steeper at 35.8.
Traded from PHI to ARI (Oct 15, 2021).
Dynasty Value Score (DVS)
1,459
Range 1,388–1,528
Based on 2025 production and our 2026 projection
Elite TE production now; the age curve is already in the score.
DVS is our model view, scored on Engine-default half-PPR — not a guaranteed price in your league. Bye weeks and schedule strength are left out on purpose.
2026 Engine Projections
99.0 pts
5.8 PPG · 15.0 games
50.9 rec · 507.9 rec yds · 3.6 rec TD
Why this DVS moved off a raw projection.
Durability ×0.95
2 of last 3 seasons under 15 games.
Process ×0.99
Process residual (not a second production percentile).
Org environment ×0.98
Team pass/rush volume vs league — scheme residual, not a second projection.
Ertz caught 50 passes for 504 yards in 2025, finishing TE20. Recent form cooled from TE8 to TE20 — watch whether that's noise or a real step down. At 36, age is the lead risk for a TE. Treat this as a watch, not a hold-forever — confirm the dip is real before adding more exposure.
Half-PPR points
101.4
PPG
7.8
Positional finish
TE20
Key stats
2025: 7.8 PPG actual vs 7.7 expected from usage (13 REG weeks, half-PPR) — outperformed by 1%.
| Season | Finish | Half-PPR FP | PPG | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Rush yd | Rush TD | Pass yd | Pass TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | TE20 | 101.4 | 7.8 | 50 | 504 | 4 | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | TE8 | 144.4 | 8.5 | 66 | 654 | 7 | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | TE46 | 38.2 | 5.5 | 27 | 187 | 1 | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | TE19 | 92.1 | 9.2 | 47 | 406 | 4 | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | TE5 | 143.7 | 8.5 | 74 | 763 | 5 | 4 | — | — | — |
| 2020 | TE33 | 59.5 | 5.4 | 36 | 335 | 1 | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | TE5 | 171.6 | 11.4 | 88 | 916 | 6 | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | TE2 | 222.3 | 13.9 | 116 | 1163 | 8 | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | TE3 | 165.4 | 11.8 | 74 | 824 | 8 | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | TE6 | 144.6 | 10.3 | 78 | 816 | 4 | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | TE10 | 132.8 | 8.9 | 75 | 853 | 2 | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | TE14 | 117.2 | 7.3 | 58 | 702 | 3 | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | TE22 | 88.9 | 5.9 | 36 | 469 | 4 | — | — | — | — |
Career arc
Dashed bar is the 2026 Engine projection, not a completed season.
| Week | Half-PPR FP | Opp | Script | Rec | Rush | Pass |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W14 | 1.6 | MIN | 47 plays · 51% pass | 11 · 1 rec | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 W13 | 15.6 | DEN | 83 plays · 60% pass | 106 · 10 rec | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 W11 | 6.2 | MIA | 63 plays · 48% pass | 42 · 4 rec | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 W10 | 7.4 | DET | 49 plays · 45% pass | 54 · 4 rec | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 W9 | 6.6 | SEA | 58 plays · 38% pass | 46 · 4 rec | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 W8 | 3.6 | KC | 50 plays · 60% pass | 16 · 4 rec | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 W7 | 11.2 | DAL | 60 plays · 53% pass | 37 / 1 TD · 3 rec | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 W6 | 13.3 | CHI | 57 plays · 46% pass | 43 / 1 TD · 6 rec | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 W5 | 0.0 | LAC | 54 plays · 48% pass | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 W4 | 5.1 | ATL | 49 plays · 55% pass | 21 · 2 rec | 0 | 0 |
Weekly Half-PPR
Hover a week for the gap.
Dashed line is expected Half-PPR from usage.
Those opponents
Pass yards they allowed per game in 2025, vs league. Plus is easier.
Snap share
2025 offense · 66.5% mean
target share
Hover a week for the share.
Pass-play participation
81.1%
2025· share of the team’s dropback plays this player was on the field for. Presence, not a charted route rate.
Advanced (2025)
Durability
R2 (35 overall) TE · that slot hit at 38.5% in 2010–2023 classes (n=26; contributor 53.8%). Window is the first three NFL seasons.
2025 season · Next Gen Stats · ranks among NGS sample
34th of 35
7th of 35
33rd of 35
5th of 35
Similar age, draft capital, and role — context for outcome bands, not a second DVS.