WR · MIN · #18
Justin Jefferson
- Height
- HT 6'1"
- Weight
- WT 192 lbs
- Birth date
- Jun 16, 1999 (age 27.2)
- College
- LSU
WR2 slipped to WR25 last year; that's the warning.
Picked by the Vikings in 2020 via a trade with the Bills.
Dynasty Value Score (DVS)
6,251
Range 5,610–6,711
Based on 2025 production and our 2026 projection
Proven WR in his prime — production and runway both hold.
DVS is our model view, scored on Engine-default half-PPR — not a guaranteed price in your league. Bye weeks and schedule strength are left out on purpose.
2026 Engine Projections
206.4 pts
12.1 PPG · 15.5 games
82 rec · 1167.1 rec yds · 7.9 rec TD
Player quality
Why this DVS moved off a raw projection.
Durability ×0.98
One recent short season (games missed). Production already saw the missed games — this is forward risk only.
Process ×0.99
Process residual (not a second production percentile).
Org environment ×1.02
Team pass/rush volume vs league — scheme residual, not a second projection.
Quick answer
WatchJefferson caught 84 passes for 1,048 yards in 2025, finishing WR25. He scored about 22% less than his touches said he should. WR2 slipped to WR25 last year; that's the warning. The 2026 projection still has him in every-week starter range. Treat this as a watch, not a hold-forever — confirm the dip is real before adding more exposure.
NextDyne coverage
Dynasty notes from our blog that mention Justin Jefferson.
- StrategyNextDyne
Dynasty Mailbag: Real Reader Trade Questions
Real dynasty trade and roster questions from readers, answered straight with NextDyne's live Dynasty Value Scores.
- StrategyNextDyne
Zay Flowers Just Got Paid — Does the Ravens' Offense Hold Him Back?
Zay Flowers signed a $140 million extension after a WR7 breakout, but Baltimore's offense was one of the league's lowest-volume passing attacks. Here's his dynasty value.
- StrategyNextDyne
Is Malik Nabers a Top-5 Dynasty WR Regardless of QB Play?
Malik Nabers tore his ACL in Week 4 and needed a second cleanup surgery in May. Here's an honest look at his recovery timeline and dynasty value heading into 2026.
- StrategyNextDyne
Is DK Metcalf Still a Startable Dynasty WR?
DK Metcalf posted a career-low receiving season in 2025 playing with an aging Aaron Rodgers. Here's an honest look at his dynasty value with a new head coach in Pittsburgh.
- StrategyNextDyne
Is T.J. Hockenson Still a Top-5 Dynasty TE?
Kyler Murray just won the Vikings' starting job over J.J. McCarthy. Here's what it means for T.J. Hockenson's dynasty value after two down years.
- StrategyNextDyne
Is JSN's Breakout Year Real or a Product of Volume?
Jaxon Smith-Njigba led the NFL in receiving yards, won a Super Bowl, and just signed a $168.6 million extension. Here's why his dynasty value isn't a volume mirage.
- NewsNextDyne
Kyler Murray Is Officially Minnesota's Starting QB — What That Means for His Dynasty Value
Kyler Murray's dynasty value after he took over as Minnesota's QB1 — the depth chart, the weapons, and what changes for J.J. McCarthy owners.
- StrategyNextDyne
Keep or Trade Justin Jefferson in Dynasty in 2026?
Justin Jefferson's WR25 finish in 2025 wasn't about him — it was Minnesota's quarterback play. Here's why his dynasty value bounces back in 2026.
2025 fantasy highlights
Half-PPR points
159.5
PPG
9.4
Positional finish
WR25
Key stats
- Rec: 84 (WR10)
- Rec yds: 1048 (WR11)
- Rec TD: 2 (WR70)
2025: 9.4 PPG actual vs 12.0 expected from usage (17 REG weeks, half-PPR) — underperformed by 22%.
Career (Half-PPR)
| Season | Finish | Half-PPR FP | PPG | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Rush yd | Rush TD | Pass yd | Pass TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | WR25 | 159.5 | 9.4 | 84 | 1048 | 2 | 7 | — | — | — |
| 2024 | WR2 | 266.0 | 15.6 | 103 | 1533 | 10 | 3 | — | 22 | — |
| 2023 | WR28 | 168.2 | 16.8 | 68 | 1074 | 5 | -12 | — | — | — |
| 2022 | WR1 | 304.7 | 17.9 | 128 | 1809 | 8 | 24 | 1 | 34 | — |
| 2021 | WR4 | 276.4 | 16.3 | 108 | 1616 | 10 | 14 | — | 35 | — |
| 2020 | WR6 | 230.2 | 14.4 | 88 | 1400 | 7 | 2 | — | — | — |
Career arc
Dashed bar is the 2026 Engine projection, not a completed season.
Recent games (2025)
| Week | Half-PPR FP | Opp | Script | Rec | Rush | Pass |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W18 | 14.4 | GB | 62 plays · 50% pass | 101 · 8 rec | 3 | 0 |
| 2025 W17 | 5.0 | DET | 44 plays · 36% pass | 30 · 4 rec | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 W16 | 11.5 | NYG | 54 plays · 43% pass | 85 · 6 rec | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 W15 | 3.2 | DAL | 52 plays · 46% pass | 22 · 2 rec | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 W14 | 2.1 | WAS | 57 plays · 40% pass | 11 · 2 rec | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 W13 | 1.4 | SEA | 46 plays · 65% pass | 4 · 2 rec | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 W12 | 6.8 | GB | 39 plays · 49% pass | 48 · 4 rec | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 W11 | 8.6 | CHI | 54 plays · 59% pass | 61 · 5 rec | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 W10 | 5.7 | BAL | 60 plays · 70% pass | 37 · 4 rec | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 W9 | 13.7 | DET | 54 plays · 46% pass | 47 / 1 TD · 6 rec | 0 | 0 |
Weekly Half-PPR
Hover a week for the gap.
Dashed line is expected Half-PPR from usage.
Those opponents
Pass yards they allowed per game in 2025, vs league. Plus is easier.
- GB-8% · 207 pass yards
- DET+5% · 237 pass yards
- NYG+2% · 230 pass yards
- DAL+18% · 266 pass yards
- WAS+14% · 257 pass yards
- SEA-5% · 213 pass yards
- CHI+6% · 239 pass yards
- BAL+15% · 259 pass yards
Usage and availability
Snap share
2025 offense · 94.2% mean
target share
Hover a week for the share.
Pass-play participation
95.7%
2025· share of the team’s dropback plays this player was on the field for. Presence, not a charted route rate.
Advanced (2025)
- Broken tackles
- 5
- Avg depth of target
- 10.2
- Drop %
- 2.1%
Durability
- 202310 G
- 202417 G
- 202517 G
- 15.5 projected games — injury history is priced as risk, not a short 2026 slate.
R1 (22 overall) WR · that slot hit at 60.0% in 2010–2023 classes (n=55; contributor 72.7%). Window is the first three NFL seasons.
Next Gen Stats
2025 season · Next Gen Stats · ranks among NGS sample
- Separation
- 3.23yd
- Cushion
- 5.85yd
- YAC above expected
- 0.78yd
- Air yards share
- 38.4%
19th of 85
56th of 85
26th of 85
6th of 85
Historical comps
Similar age, draft capital, and role — context for outcome bands, not a second DVS.
FAQ
- What is Justin Jefferson's dynasty value on NextDyne?
- Jefferson scores 6,251 out of 10,000. The score blends 2025 production with our 2026 projection. Superflex and TE Premium shift the rankings; the trade calculator shows how.
- What is Justin Jefferson's 2026 Engine Projection?
- We project 12.1 half-PPR points per game for 2026. That rate feeds Value Score — multiply by games and your league’s scoring if you want a season total.
- How are season fantasy points calculated on this page?
- Season totals and the recent game log use Half-PPR so every public profile matches our Engine board. Your league’s scoring shows up inside the app.
- Should I trade for Justin Jefferson in dynasty right now?
- Treat this as a watch, not a hold-forever — confirm the dip is real before adding more exposure. Run the actual numbers on the dynasty trade calculator before you commit — stance is a starting point, not a price.