Rankings
Redzone & Stalled, Week 8: Who Beat Our Projections and Who Missed
Dynasty risers and fallers from Week 8 measured against our projections: Allgeier, Mitchell and Higgins ran hot while Atlanta's offense stalled.
By Derek Sallis · November 3, 2026
We scored Week 8 against our own projections. Of the 97 players on our Week 9 board who played, 48 beat their number and 49 missed it. The average miss was 6.7 points.
The misses cluster by team more than by player. Arizona's four players beat their projections by 59.9 points combined. Cincinnati's five beat theirs by 50.0. Atlanta's five fell short by 49.0.
Redzone: the biggest beats
| Player | Team | Projected | Actual | Week 9 projection |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Allgeier | ARI RB | 6.1 | 33.6 | 11.2 |
| Adonai Mitchell | NYJ WR | 0.8 | 23.7 | 9.7 |
| Emmett Johnson | KC RB | 3.1 | 22.8 | 9.0 |
| Gardner Minshew | ARI QB | 0.0 | 19.5 | 14.7 |
| Tee Higgins | CIN WR | 14.6 | 32.5 | 22.5 |
Two of the five beat us because a job changed during the game. Allgeier took over after two backs got hurt. Minshew replaced a benched quarterback. A projection can't see a concussion or a benching.
Mitchell's number moved with his health. He had been the Jets' third receiver after coming off injured reserve, and he played 95 percent of the snaps in three-receiver sets on Sunday. Johnson is the odd one. He played 12 snaps, and 73 yards came on one catch.
The right-hand column matters most. Our Week 9 board does not chase Allgeier, Mitchell or Johnson, and it cuts each by at least half. Higgins is the exception, because the model leans on his last three games.
Stalled: the biggest misses
| Player | Team | Projected | Actual | Week 9 projection |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Penix Jr. | ATL QB | 18.4 | -1.9 | 14.1 |
| Zay Flowers | BAL WR | 17.5 | 0.0 | 10.4 |
| Jayden Daniels | WAS QB | 29.6 | 15.0 | 19.5 |
| Drake London | ATL WR | 15.2 | 1.3 | 11.8 |
| Tre Tucker | LV WR | 13.3 | 0.0 | 12.6 |
| Kyle Pitts | ATL TE | 14.7 | 1.6 | 11.8 |
Flowers had a reason. Baltimore lost its starter and its backup, and the third quarterback threw for 91 yards. Tucker had one too. Jack Bech returned from injured reserve and Tucker's snap rate fell to a season-low 54 percent.
Atlanta is the harder case. London averaged 3.6 yards of separation, fifth highest among the 38 receivers on our board with tracking data. Pitts played 55 percent of the snaps for a second straight week, but he has drawn at least 20 percent of the targets per route in five straight games. They still got open and still got looks. The offense around them produced almost nothing.
Daniels is the one we can't explain. He scored 15.0 in a 27-10 win, nearly 15 under his projection, and our data does not show why.
Our Week 9 board expects partial recoveries across the group. Penix projects at 14.1 with a floor of 5.1, which tells you how wide the range is.
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FAQ
- How accurate were our Week 8 projections?
- On our Week 9 board, 48 of 97 players beat their Week 8 projection and 49 missed it. The average miss was 6.7 points.
- Why did Atlanta's offense score zero?
- Atlanta lost 16-0 at Tampa Bay. Penix scored negative 1.9 and London and Pitts each scored under two points. We can't point to one cause from the box score.
- Will Tyler Allgeier repeat his Week 8 numbers?
- Our Week 9 projection is 11.2, a third of his 33.6. The 147 rushing yards came with two other backs hurt, and Jeremiyah Love is out again in Week 9.