Starting QB Stats Look Down From 2015. The Box Score Is Lying to You.

The quick answer

Starting quarterbacks throw about three fewer passes a game than they did in 2015, and that alone explains most of the drop in yards and touchdowns. Completion rate is higher now than it was then. Interception rate is at a 27-year low. Sacks are up, but that tracks the pass rush getting home more often on the same dropbacks — not defensive backs shutting down throwing lanes. If coverage had solved the passing game, you would expect more picks and fewer completions. We see the opposite of both.

What actually moved, and what didn't

We pulled every starting QB season from 1999 through 2025 — the top 31 or 32 passers by attempts each year, a fair proxy for who actually played quarterback that season. Comparing the 2016–2020 stretch to 2021–2025:

Look at the shape. Every stat that measures how well a quarterback throws — completion rate, interception rate — got better or held flat. Every stat that measures how much he throws — attempts, and by extension yards and touchdowns — went down. That is not a passing game in decline. That is a passing game called less often, executed as well or better when it is called, and getting there through more designed rushing than it used to.

Touchdown rate per attempt in 2024–25 sits at 4.88–4.94%, back near the 2018–2020 range. Touchdowns per game are still below the 2015 peak (1.67 then, 1.50 in 2025) for one reason: volume. Starters throw fewer times, so they score fewer times, even though they are just as efficient per throw as they were five years ago.

The sack number is the one everyone reads wrong

Sack rate bottomed out at 5.68% in 2020, climbed to 6.68–6.74% in 2023–24, and settled at 6.41% in 2025. That is a real increase, and it is the stat most likely to get credited to “defenses figured out the pass.” The rest of the data does not support that read.

If linebackers and defensive backs were taking away throwing windows, you would expect quarterbacks to hold the ball longer looking for an open man, and you would expect more picks as they force throws into tighter coverage. Neither shows up as a coverage story. Next Gen Stats time-to-throw ticked up slightly from 2024 to 2025 (2.79s to 2.82s, starter median) — they are not rushing throws out of fear of coverage. Interception rate sits at a sample-low 1.98% in 2025, the best mark in the 27-year window.

What did move: PFR pressure rate on the same three-year sample climbed from 20.1% to 21.6% while pocket time stayed flat at 2.4 seconds across all three years. That is a pass-rush conversion story — more pressures turning into sacks — not a coverage story. The 2023 sack peak lines up with a league-wide spike in defensive sacks per team-game (2.21 in 2020 to 2.57 in 2023), the same signal from the other side of the ball.

None of this rules out coverage getting better in some seasons or matchups. The database cannot separate blitz rate, personnel, or time-to-throw versus coverage cleanly enough to make that call. What it does rule out is treating sack rate alone as proof. Sacks up, picks down, and completions up in the same window is a pass-rush story wearing a coverage story's clothes.

What this means if you're building a dynasty roster

The rushing number is the one worth sitting with. Rush yards per game for starting quarterbacks climbed from 14.2 to 17.0 across these two windows. That is the part of the box score that actually grew while the air game held flat or shrank. In half-PPR or standard, where a rushing touchdown and a passing touchdown are not worth the same thing, that shift matters more than it looks.

Two things follow for how you value quarterbacks in dynasty:

Don't punish a QB for a lower attempt total if the efficiency numbers are intact. A quarterback throwing 31 times a game at 66% and a low pick rate is not a worse asset than one throwing 34 times a game at 64% five years ago — he is playing in a league where volume compressed across the board. Check completion rate, TD rate per attempt, and ANY/A before you conclude arm talent slipped. Those numbers recovered by 2024–25. Raw attempts did not.

Weight the rushing floor more than the box score used to suggest you should. A designed run game or a real scramble threat is doing more of the fantasy-relevant work now than it was in 2018. That is part of why Jayden Daniels, Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, and Bo Nixsit 3rd through 6th on today's Engine 2026 projection — behind only Josh Allen and Matthew Stafford — on rushing production layered on solid passing, not because they are dramatically better throwers than the veterans below them.

Run any of these quarterbacks through the Dynasty Trade Calculator with rushing floor in mind. A QB who can be a league-average passer and still add a real rushing line has more insulation against a bad receiving corps or a shaky line than a pure pocket passer does.