Strategy
Justin Herbert Keeps Getting Overlooked — What's the Market Missing?
Justin Herbert played through a broken hand in 2025 and still finished QB10. Here's why the market keeps underrating one of dynasty's steadiest quarterbacks.
By Kenny Flermoen · August 21, 2026
Consistency, mostly. Justin Herbert already had his spike year — 5,014 passing yards and QB2 in 2021 — and has spent the seasons since neither repeating it nor falling apart. That profile gets skipped in a hobby that rewards the next breakout or the injury-recovery arc. What he actually did last year was play through a broken hand and finish as a top-10 fantasy quarterback.
The quick answer
Herbert scores a 6,981 Dynasty Value Score — 12th among quarterbacks — and projects for 308.1 half-PPR points in 2026, 18.1 per game. He finished QB10 last season on 3,727 passing yards and 26 touchdowns in 16 games. The board is a hold: not a smash buy, not a reason to move him. He sits between Brock Purdy at 7,070 and Jayden Daniels at 6,941 on our QB dynasty board.
The season most quarterbacks don't play through
Herbert broke a bone in his left hand in Week 13 at Las Vegas. The injury report had him questionable with a hand the next week. He still took every remaining regular-season snap through Week 17. That is on top of an offensive line that spent most of the year without both starting tackles — the same collapse we covered in Ladd McConkey's dynasty profile. Rashawn Slater missed the entire season. Joe Alt lasted six games, then had season-ending ankle surgery. A quarterback finishing QB10 behind that protection, with a broken hand, is the floor showing up in public.
2021 was the spike. Everything after has held.
The career line is QB9, QB2, QB11, QB17, QB11, QB10. The QB2 year is 2021: 5,014 yards, 38 passing touchdowns. Nothing since has looked like that, and nothing since has fallen off a cliff either. Five of six seasons landed inside the top 15. The miss is 2023, when he played 13 games and finished QB17. That is a rare shape at the position. Most of the names in this series have at least one real swing from injury, a coaching change, or a new supporting cast. Herbert's supporting cast has moved around him. The finishes have not.
Next Gen still had him completing passes 3.3 points above expectation in 2025 on 512 attempts — higher than his 2024 mark, not lower. The passer did not break with the hand.
What is actually better around him
Los Angeles hired Mike McDaniel as offensive coordinator, the same change that is part of the McConkey bounce-back case. Slater is listed LT1. Alt is listed RT1. McConkey is still WR1. Omarion Hampton is listed RB1 after a nine-game rookie year, and the tight end room is Oronde Gadsden II at TE1 with David Njoku behind him. That is a healthier pocket and a fuller skill group than he had for most of 2025. It is not a promise he throws for 5,000 yards again.
Where he stacks up against the field
6,981 DVS is 12th at the position. Jalen Hurts is 6th at 7,689. Joe Burrowis 17th at 6,233 after an eight-game 2025. Those are the established-starter bookends, not the names sitting next to him. Purdy (nine games last year) and Daniels (seven) are the actual neighbors, and both carry a shorter recent sample than Herbert's 16. He does not have a live quarterback competition on the depth chart. He does have a new coordinator. Treat that as the 2026 variable, not as zero risk.
The bottom line
If you're holding Herbert, there is little reason to move him — a proven weekly starter walking into a better line and a new play-caller. If you're targeting him, it is a fair, unglamorous buy: a top-15 caliber quarterback who gets passed over for names with a louder story, even when last year's production does not justify the gap.
Model a trade for Herbert on the Dynasty Trade Calculator — his score already prices a steady floor without needing a turnaround to justify it.
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FAQ
- What's Justin Herbert's dynasty value heading into 2026?
- A hold. He scores 6,981 — 12th among quarterbacks — and projects for 308.1 half-PPR points in 2026, 18.1 per game. Last year was QB10 on 3,727 yards and 26 touchdowns in 16 games, including the stretch after a Week 13 hand injury. The board is not asking you to buy a bounce or sell a decline.
- Did Justin Herbert really play through a broken hand in 2025?
- Yes. He broke a bone in his left hand during a Week 13 game at Las Vegas and was listed as questionable with a hand injury the next week. He still finished the regular season: 16 games, 3,727 passing yards, 26 touchdowns, and QB10 in half-PPR.
- Why does Justin Herbert get overlooked in dynasty rankings despite consistent production?
- The loud year already happened — 5,014 yards and QB2 in 2021 — and nothing since has matched that spike or crashed off a cliff. Five of his six seasons landed inside the top 15. Dynasty attention usually follows a new peak or a recovery story, and he hasn't given either one lately.
- Does the Chargers' new offensive coordinator help Justin Herbert's outlook?
- It should. Mike McDaniel is in as coordinator, Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt are listed as the starting tackles again, and Ladd McConkey is still WR1. A cleaner pocket and a quicker-throw scheme are the actual 2026 changes. They are a plus, not a guarantee he repeats 2021.