Is target share or box-score production a better signal for buy-low and sell-high calls?

Target share, once the sample is more than one night. A box score is the matchup and the injuries. Target share is the share of team targets the offense actually gave him. Davante Adams just posted 35.5 half-PPR with the Rams' WR1 inactive. Justin Jefferson caught 3 passes and still has 35.7% of Minnesota's targets over two weeks.

How much does a single huge game like Davante Adams's actually change a player's real value?

Less than the trade offer will. Adams went from a 6.3 Week 2 projection, 180th on the skill board, to 35.5 half-PPR. The live dynasty score moved from 5,385 to 5,536, and he slipped from WR26 to WR27. One outlier night raises the asking price faster than it changes the role. That gap is the sell.

Where can I check a player's actual target share before making a trade call?

The dynasty target share board shows the two-week share, weighted by team targets, for receivers who clear a small sample floor. Use that before you price a deal off one box score. Then run the offer through the dynasty trade calculator.

Strategy

Buy-Low, Sell-High: Week 2

One Week 2 riser worth selling into the hype, and one quiet star worth buying while a leaguemate is still staring at the box score.

By Marcus Reyes · September 23, 2026

One name blew up on Monday night because the Rams' WR1 didn't play. One name had a quiet Sunday and is still taking more than a third of his team's targets. Here's where I'd move.

Sell high: Davante Adams

Davante Adams caught 8 of 10 targets for 195 yards and 2 touchdowns Monday, 35.5 half-PPR, in the Rams' 28–6 win over the Giants. He was not in the Week 2 top 120. The line going in was 6.3, 180th among skill players. That kind of miss gets a name added in shallow leagues and offered up everywhere else.

Check who wasn't on the field. The Rams ruled Puka Nacua inactive with a hip. Sean McVay described it as groin soreness, not the preseason psoas issue. Jordan Whittington was inactive too. Adams was the featured receiver for a night. The Tuesday morning depth chart still has Nacua at WR1 and Adams at WR2. A slot is a listing. Monday was a vacancy, and the job on the chart is still Nacua's.

The two-week target share is 28.1%, 16 of Los Angeles's 57 targets. That is seventh among receivers. Nacua's only game, Week 1, was 9 of 27 targets, a 33.3% share, on 5 catches for 74 yards. Adams's Week 1 was 3 catches for 26. He is 33. The live dynasty score moved from 5,385 to 5,536 and he went from WR26 to WR27. The board barely flinched. Your league's asking price will not be that calm.

What I'd do: if you own him, sell the box score. The offer you get this week is for a Monday night that happened because Nacua sat.

Buy low: Justin Jefferson

Three catches for 55 yards does not look like a buy. The targets do. Justin Jefferson has 15 of Minnesota's 42 targets over two weeks, a 35.7% share. That is third among receivers. Jaxon Smith-Njigba leads at 44%, and Parker Washington is just ahead at 36.7%. Third in the league, on a team that threw 20 times Sunday, is still the job.

Sunday was the game, not a shrinking role. Minnesota threw for 143 yards. Chicago threw for 192. The final was 9–3. Jefferson was targeted 6 times and caught 3. Week 1 against Green Bay was 8 of 9 for 92 yards and 2 touchdowns, 27.2 half-PPR. The Week 2 projection was 19.2, 21st on the board. He scored 7.0. The share did not move with the box.

The live score moved the other way. It went from 6,373 after Week 1 to 6,550 on Tuesday's print, WR16 to WR15. The August catalog print was 6,711. He is still short of that number. The price went up after Chicago. If a leaguemate is worried, they are behind the board.

What I'd do: buy the worry. The role is 35.7% of the targets, and a 9–3 afternoon left it there.

Check the shares on the dynasty target share board before you trust a box score, and price the offer in the dynasty trade calculator before you send it. NextDyne is currently in early access — the first 500 leagues lock in $2.00 per rostered player for life, with Founding Franchise status.

Join the founding waitlist

Founding leagues lock in $2.00 per player, forever. Price rises to $3.00 once the founding cohort is full.

Founding leagues also get permanent Founding Franchise status in your Vault history.

Check the two-week target shares →

FAQ

Is target share or box-score production a better signal for buy-low and sell-high calls?: Target share, once the sample is more than one night. A box score is the matchup and the injuries. Target share is the share of team targets the offense actually gave him. Davante Adams just posted 35.5 half-PPR with the Rams' WR1 inactive. Justin Jefferson caught 3 passes and still has 35.7% of Minnesota's targets over two weeks.
How much does a single huge game like Davante Adams's actually change a player's real value?: Less than the trade offer will. Adams went from a 6.3 Week 2 projection, 180th on the skill board, to 35.5 half-PPR. The live dynasty score moved from 5,385 to 5,536, and he slipped from WR26 to WR27. One outlier night raises the asking price faster than it changes the role. That gap is the sell.
Where can I check a player's actual target share before making a trade call?: The dynasty target share board shows the two-week share, weighted by team targets, for receivers who clear a small sample floor. Use that before you price a deal off one box score. Then run the offer through the dynasty trade calculator.

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