QB · JAX · #16
2024 stopped at 10 games; staying on the field is the swing factor.
Dynasty Value Score (DVS)
7,181
Range 6,521–7,830
Based on 2025 production and our 2026 projection
Proven QB in his prime — production and runway both hold.
DVS is our model view, scored on Engine-default half-PPR — not a guaranteed price in your league. Bye weeks and schedule strength are left out on purpose.
2026 Engine Projections
290.6 pts
17.1 PPG · 15.0 games
3953.5 pass yds · 24.9 pass TD · 324.1 rush yds
Why this DVS moved off a raw projection.
Durability ×0.98
One recent short season (games missed). Production already saw the missed games — this is forward risk only.
Process ×0.98
Process residual (not a second production percentile).
Versatility ×1.02
Light floor from multi-role usage (rush+receive or dual-threat).
Lawrence threw for 4,007 yards and 29 TDs in 2025, finishing QB4. He scored about 6% less than his touches said he should. After a rough middle year (QB27), QB4 looks like a reset worth tracking. 2024 stopped at 10 games; staying on the field is the swing factor. That's a buy-low window if the price still reflects the rough year, not the recovery.
Dynasty notes from our blog that mention Trevor Lawrence.
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Half-PPR points
338.2
PPG
19.9
Positional finish
QB4
Key stats
2025: 19.9 PPG actual vs 21.1 expected from usage (17 REG weeks, half-PPR) — underperformed by 6%.
| Season | Finish | Half-PPR FP | PPG | Pass yd | Pass TD | Rush yd | Rush TD | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | QB4 | 338.2 | 19.9 | 4007 | 29 | 359 | 9 | — | — | — |
| 2024 | QB27 | 145.2 | 14.5 | 2045 | 11 | 119 | 3 | — | -5 | — |
| 2023 | QB12 | 262.5 | 16.4 | 4016 | 21 | 339 | 4 | — | — | — |
| 2022 | QB7 | 295.6 | 17.4 | 4113 | 25 | 291 | 5 | — | — | — |
| 2021 | QB23 | 199.0 | 11.7 | 3641 | 12 | 334 | 2 | — | — | — |
Career arc
Dashed bar is the 2026 Engine projection, not a completed season.
| Week | Half-PPR FP | Opp | Script | Pass | Rush | Rec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W18 | 23.3 | TEN | 56 plays · 57% pass | 255 / 3 TD | 11 | 0 |
| 2025 W17 | 23.1 | IND | 66 plays · 56% pass | 263 | 26 / 2 TD | 0 |
| 2025 W16 | 31.2 | DEN | 63 plays · 57% pass | 279 / 3 TD | 20 / 1 TD | 0 |
| 2025 W15 | 44.3 | NYJ | 59 plays · 54% pass | 330 / 5 TD | 51 / 1 TD | 0 |
| 2025 W14 | 19.4 | IND | 63 plays · 49% pass | 244 / 2 TD | 16 | 0 |
| 2025 W13 | 21.7 | TEN | 54 plays · 50% pass | 229 / 2 TD | 25 | 0 |
| 2025 W12 | 17.1 | ARI | 58 plays · 52% pass | 256 / 3 TD | 29 | 0 |
| 2025 W11 | 15.0 | LAC | 69 plays · 32% pass | 153 / 1 TD | 9 / 1 TD | 0 |
| 2025 W10 | 9.8 | HOU | 50 plays · 46% pass | 158 / 1 TD | 35 | 0 |
| 2025 W9 | 21.2 | LV | 76 plays · 45% pass | 220 | 24 / 2 TD | 0 |
Weekly Half-PPR
Hover a week for the gap.
Dashed line is expected Half-PPR from usage.
Those opponents
Pass yards they allowed per game in 2025, vs league. Plus is easier.
Snap share
2025 offense · 96.7% mean
pass-attempt share
Hover a week for the share.
Pass-play participation
99.5%
2025· share of the team’s dropback plays this player was on the field for. Presence, not a charted route rate.
Advanced (2025)
Durability
R1 (1 overall) QB · that slot hit at 39.5% in 2010–2023 classes (n=43; contributor 62.8%). Window is the first three NFL seasons.
2025 season · Next Gen Stats · ranks among NGS sample
29th of 42
14th of 42
32nd of 42
10th of 42
Similar age, draft capital, and role — context for outcome bands, not a second DVS.