QB · HOU · #7
25-year-old QB.
Dynasty Value Score (DVS)
6,002
Range 5,463–6,532
Based on 2025 production and our 2026 projection
Proven QB in his prime — production and runway both hold.
DVS is our model view, scored on Engine-default half-PPR — not a guaranteed price in your league. Bye weeks and schedule strength are left out on purpose.
2026 Engine Projections
274.6 pts
16.2 PPG · 15.1 games
4084.2 pass yds · 24.8 pass TD · 267.4 rush yds
Why this DVS moved off a raw projection.
Durability ×0.98
One recent short season (games missed). Production already saw the missed games — this is forward risk only.
Process ×0.98
Process residual (not a second production percentile).
Org environment ×1.01
Team pass/rush volume vs league — scheme residual, not a second projection.
Stroud threw for 3,041 yards and 19 TDs in 2025, finishing QB21. He's 25 with a quiet recent trend — no red flag, no spike either. The 2026 projection still has him in every-week starter range. This reads as a hold — nothing in the recent signal pushes it toward a buy or a sell.
Dynasty notes from our blog that mention C.J. Stroud.
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Half-PPR points
208.5
PPG
14.9
Positional finish
QB21
Key stats
2025: 14.9 PPG actual vs 15.1 expected from usage (14 REG weeks, half-PPR) — underperformed by 1%.
| Season | Finish | Half-PPR FP | PPG | Pass yd | Pass TD | Rush yd | Rush TD | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | QB21 | 208.5 | 14.9 | 3041 | 19 | 209 | 1 | — | — | — |
| 2024 | QB18 | 220.4 | 13.0 | 3727 | 20 | 233 | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | QB9 | 275.5 | 18.4 | 4108 | 23 | 167 | 3 | 1 | — | — |
Career arc
Dashed bar is the 2026 Engine projection, not a completed season.
| Week | Half-PPR FP | Opp | Script | Pass | Rush | Rec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W18 | 17.3 | IND | 64 plays · 50% pass | 169 / 1 TD | 5 / 1 TD | 0 |
| 2025 W17 | 13.8 | LAC | 62 plays · 45% pass | 244 / 2 TD | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 W16 | 11.5 | LV | 61 plays · 57% pass | 187 / 1 TD | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 W15 | 23.4 | ARI | 62 plays · 47% pass | 260 / 3 TD | 10 | 0 |
| 2025 W14 | 12.6 | KC | 62 plays · 50% pass | 203 / 1 TD | 5 | 0 |
| 2025 W13 | 9.0 | IND | 69 plays · 51% pass | 276 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 W9 | 4.4 | DEN | 68 plays · 59% pass | 79 | 12 | 0 |
| 2025 W8 | 21.7 | SF | 75 plays · 52% pass | 318 / 2 TD | 30 | 0 |
| 2025 W7 | 13.7 | SEA | 66 plays · 74% pass | 229 / 1 TD | 25 | 0 |
| 2025 W5 | 28.8 | BAL | 64 plays · 48% pass | 244 / 4 TD | 30 | 0 |
Weekly Half-PPR
Hover a week for the gap.
Dashed line is expected Half-PPR from usage.
Those opponents
Pass yards they allowed per game in 2025, vs league. Plus is easier.
Snap share
2025 offense · 91.2% mean
pass-attempt share
Hover a week for the share.
Pass-play participation
92.4%
2025· share of the team’s dropback plays this player was on the field for. Presence, not a charted route rate.
Advanced (2025)
Durability
R1 (2 overall) QB · that slot hit at 39.5% in 2010–2023 classes (n=43; contributor 62.8%). Window is the first three NFL seasons.
2025 season · Next Gen Stats · ranks among NGS sample
22nd of 42
36th of 42
18th of 42
22nd of 42
Similar age, draft capital, and role — context for outcome bands, not a second DVS.