Is Caleb Williams a Buy-Low After Year One in Chicago?

Yes, and the climb from his rookie year to his second season is real, not a name still riding draft-day hype. Williamsjumped from QB16 to QB5 in a single year, and the production held up across a full, healthy season. There's an honest wrinkle worth flagging underneath the box score, but it doesn't change the direction of the trend.

The quick answer

Williams scores an 8,360 Dynasty Value Score and projects for 346.3 half-PPR points in 2026, 20.4 per game. He finished QB5 last season with 3,942 passing yards, 27 touchdowns, and 383 rushing yards — real, across-the-board growth from a rookie year that had him as a fringe streaming option. Our model's own read here is direct: buy. This is a genuine climb rather than a name you're paying a premium for on potential alone.

The path that got him here

Williams's rookie season was rough enough that dynasty managers largely moved on from him as a near-term asset — QB16, 254.5 points, playing behind an offensive line and coaching staff that didn't do him many favors. Chicago fired that staff after the season and hired Ben Johnson as head coach, the same offensive mind who developed Amon-Ra St. Brown in Detroit and is now doing similar work with Rome Odunze. Williams responded with a real second-year leap: a Chicago franchise passing record, an 11-6 record, and an NFC North title, all backed by a full, healthy 17-game season.

The honest wrinkle in the numbers

Here's the part worth being straight about: Williams's underlying accuracy metrics were genuinely rough in 2025. He ranked dead last of 42 qualifying quarterbacks in aggressiveness — meaning he avoided tight-window throws more than any other starter in the league — and 41st in completion percentage over expectation, a measure of accuracy independent of scheme or receiver play. Those are not small gaps. They suggest his box score improvement leaned heavily on rushing production, scheme design, and finishing drives rather than a fundamental accuracy breakthrough.

That's not a reason to write off the growth — his fantasy production was real and repeatable across a full season, not a hot streak propped up by a couple of huge games. But it is a fair caveat for anyone assuming this is purely an efficiency story. Much of what changed looks tied to Ben Johnson's scheme and Williams's legs rather than a cleaner, more accurate passer showing up on tape.

Why the trajectory still points up

Two seasons in, Williams has shown real, measurable growth in the numbers that matter most for fantasy — yardage, touchdowns, and a real rushing floor that's stayed consistent across both years. He's just 24, playing for a coach with a strong track record of developing young offensive talent, on a team that just won its division for the first time in years. Even with the accuracy caveat, that's a legitimate foundation for continued growth rather than a ceiling already reached.

Where he stacks up against the field

Williams's 8,360 DVS sits close to Drake Maye at 7,966 and well ahead of Jayden Daniels at 6,921, C.J. Stroud at 5,931, and Bryce Young at 4,015 — the clear top name among the 2023–2024 quarterback draft class covered in this series. That's a meaningful gap from names entering their third and fourth NFL seasons, and it reflects genuine, proven production rather than remaining draft-capital optimism.

The bottom line

If you're holding Williams, the second-year leap is backed by a full season of real production, not a hot stretch — there's little reason to sell into that growth. If you're targeting him in a trade, this is a fair buy for a quarterback who's shown he can produce QB1 numbers even before the accuracy metrics fully catch up to the box score, which leaves real room for further growth rather than a player who's already peaked.

Model a trade for Williams on the Dynasty Trade Calculator — his score already reflects a real, proven climb with room left to grow into a more efficient passer.