Is Tyler Warren the Rookie TE Breakout Everyone's Missing?

Tyler Warren caught 76 passes for 817 yards and four touchdowns as a rookie, led the Colts in targets, and finished TE5 — all while his starting quarterback tore his Achilles in Week 14 and got replaced first by rookie Riley Leonard, then by Philip Rivers for the stretch run. Now Michael Pittman is gone to Pittsburgh, and the receiving volume he leaves behind is up for grabs across Indianapolis's passing game. Warren is the most established, highest-target-share weapon in that offense. He's a legitimate TE1 who most dynasty boards still price like a TE2.

The rookie year was better than the box score shows

76-817-4 is a solid rookie line, but it undersells him. Warren posted a 19% target share as a rookie — the highest mark in the entire rookie class — and his 17 first downs are the most by any rookie tight end in the PFF era. He finished 2nd among all tight ends in yards after the catch (487, trailing only Trey McBride's 577) and ranked 7th in the NFL in yards per route run. NextDyne's model backs that up — he posted 112 targets, 3.31 yards of average separation, and a 67.9% catch rate, with positive yards after catch over expected. That's efficient, high-value production from a rookie who was still learning the position at the NFL level.

He faded late. Daniel Jones' Week 14 Achilles tear pulled Warren's ceiling down for the final stretch of the season — his catch rate on targets dropped from about 75% with Jones healthy to roughly 53% once Leonard and then Rivers took over. That drop-off is on the offense, not on Warren.

Indianapolis reshuffled the target share — and Warren is the constant

The Colts traded Michael Pittman to Pittsburgh this offseason for a modest return, and the move makes more sense once you know why: Alec Pierce had already taken over as the offense's clear No. 1 receiver, and Pittman's role had faded behind him. Indianapolis didn't draft a receiver before the seventh round, so the real target competition behind Pierce and Josh Downs is thin. Pittman ran 111 targets last year, essentially tied with Warren for the team lead. Those targets don't just go to Pierce — a meaningful share flows to whoever is already the offense's most trusted weapon, and that's Warren, a first-round pick who already out-produced Pittman on a per-route basis as a rookie.

Coach Shane Steichen has called Warren "an elite player with elite traits," an "old-school throwback" who is "tough, physical, can run all the routes," and Steichen has said finding more ways to get him the ball is a focus heading into 2026. Rob Gronkowski himself has said Warren's game reminds him of his own — a big name to invoke, but the tape and the target-share numbers support the comparison more than they contradict it.

The real risk is health, not talent

Daniel Jones is coming off a torn Achilles, and his mobility and durability are legitimate questions entering 2026. Warren's rookie splits prove how much his numbers depend on which quarterback is throwing him the ball — the difference between Jones and the backups was the difference between a target hog and an afterthought. If Jones misses time again, Warren's ceiling drops with him, the same way it did in December.

That's a real risk, not a footnote. But it's a QB-health risk, not a talent or opportunity risk — and those are very different things to price into a dynasty asset.

The buy case

NextDyne projects Warren for 181.8 half-PPR points in 2026 — 4th among all tight ends, trailing only Trey McBride, Brock Bowers, and Sam LaPorta. That's a top-4 outlook for a player most public dynasty boards still treat as a TE2 tier asset. If Jones stays on the field for a full season, Warren has a real path to a top-3 finish. Buy him now, before a strong September forces the market to catch up to what the target-share numbers already show.

Want to see how Tyler Warren stacks up in your own league? Compare his value in the Dynasty Trade Calculator and check what the buy-in should look like.