Who were the Week 2 dynasty risers and busts?

On the Week 2 top 120, Jaxon Smith-Njigba had the widest beat: 38.0 half-PPR against a 15.8 projection. CeeDee Lamb (31.3 on 15.6), Amon-Ra St. Brown (30.7 on 19.6), and Brock Purdy (28.5 on 17.4) also cleared real expectations. Davante Adams was outside that board, 179th at 6.3, and scored 35.5. Drake Maye finished at 8.0 against 15.9, Justin Jefferson at 7.0 against 19.2, and Trevor Lawrence at 6.2 against 22.2.

Does missing a weekly projection mean a player's role changed?

Not usually. Check whether the miss came from a tough matchup, a low-scoring game script, or an actual drop in target and carry share before reading anything into a single bad week.

Should I bench someone after one big projection miss like Justin Jefferson's?

No, not off a single game against a defense that played well that afternoon. Look at target share and snap count over the next week or two before making any real decision.

Why was Trevor Lawrence projected for 22 points before a bad Week 2?

His Week 2 line rose from 16.5 to 22.2 because a 26.1-point Week 1 got blended into the weekly number. Denver’s defense multiplier on that projection was neutral. One hot week can lift the next number without the matchup getting easier.

Rankings

Redzone & Stalled: Week 2

Week 2 dynasty risers and busts: who blew past the projection, and the two quarterbacks who never got going.

By Derek Sallis · September 22, 2026

Some players ran hot. Some never got out of neutral. Here's who beat their Week 2 half-PPR number, and who missed it badly enough that it's worth asking why.

Redzone

Jaxon Smith-Njigba: the widest gap on the board

Projected for 15.8. Delivered 38.0. Jaxon Smith-Njigba posted the single biggest overperformance on the Week 2 top 120 — 9 catches, 155 yards, 3 touchdowns in a 31–7 rout. He was already good before this week. This is what the ceiling looks like when everything breaks his way at once.

Davante Adams: he wasn't even on the board

Davante Adams didn't rank inside our Week 2 top 120. He was 179th, projected for 6.3 — not a start. He caught 8 passes for 195 yards and two touchdowns, 35.5 half-PPR, in the Rams' 28–6 Monday night win over the Giants. That's the waiver-wire story, and it matters more than a ranked player missing a number.

CeeDee Lamb, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Brock Purdy all blew past real expectations

CeeDee Lamb was projected for 15.6 and posted 31.3. Amon-Ra St. Brown was projected for 19.6 and put up 30.7 in the Thursday shootout. Brock Purdy was projected for 17.4 and posted 28.5, rushing touchdown included, as San Francisco blew out Miami 35–13. None of these are outlier names. All three were already trusted assets. This week confirmed the price rather than raising a new question.

Stalled

Drake Maye: the clearest miss of the week

Projected for 15.9. Finished with 8.0 — 14-of-22 for 208 yards, no touchdowns, an interception. Drake Maye wasn't even his own team's leading scorer. TreVeyon Henderson outscored him by more than 5 points on the ground alone: 16 carries, 76 yards, a touchdown. New England won 20–3. That game doesn't need quarterback volume, and it didn't get any.

Justin Jefferson: buried by a defense that played well Sunday

Projected for 19.2. Finished with 7.0 — 3 catches on 6 targets in a 9–3 slugfest. Justin Jefferson didn't lose his role. Chicago simply didn't let much happen through the air for either team all afternoon. This is a matchup miss, not a usage concern. Don't bench him off one bad week against a defense playing this well.

Trevor Lawrence: Week 1 pulled the number up

Projected for 22.2. Finished with 6.2 — 17-of-29 for 189 yards, an interception, no touchdowns. Trevor Lawrence is the miss to own, and it isn't a Denver matchup call. His Week 2 line jumped from 16.5 because a 26.1-point Week 1 got blended into the weekly number. Denver's defense multiplier on that same projection was flat. Denver won 20–13 anyway. One hot week lifted the projection. The next week didn't follow.

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FAQ

Who were the Week 2 dynasty risers and busts?: On the Week 2 top 120, Jaxon Smith-Njigba had the widest beat: 38.0 half-PPR against a 15.8 projection. CeeDee Lamb (31.3 on 15.6), Amon-Ra St. Brown (30.7 on 19.6), and Brock Purdy (28.5 on 17.4) also cleared real expectations. Davante Adams was outside that board, 179th at 6.3, and scored 35.5. Drake Maye finished at 8.0 against 15.9, Justin Jefferson at 7.0 against 19.2, and Trevor Lawrence at 6.2 against 22.2.
Does missing a weekly projection mean a player's role changed?: Not usually. Check whether the miss came from a tough matchup, a low-scoring game script, or an actual drop in target and carry share before reading anything into a single bad week.
Should I bench someone after one big projection miss like Justin Jefferson's?: No, not off a single game against a defense that played well that afternoon. Look at target share and snap count over the next week or two before making any real decision.
Why was Trevor Lawrence projected for 22 points before a bad Week 2?: His Week 2 line rose from 16.5 to 22.2 because a 26.1-point Week 1 got blended into the weekly number. Denver’s defense multiplier on that projection was neutral. One hot week can lift the next number without the matchup getting easier.

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