WR · SEA · #11
Path runs WR48 → WR10 → WR2 — a bounce-back, not a blank slate.
Dynasty Value Score (DVS)
8,353
Range 7,463–8,986
Based on 2025 production and our 2026 projection
Proven WR in his prime — production and runway both hold.
DVS is our model view, scored on Engine-default half-PPR — not a guaranteed price in your league. Bye weeks and schedule strength are left out on purpose.
2026 Engine Projections
258.8 pts
15.2 PPG · 16.5 games
102.5 rec · 1520.7 rec yds · 8.8 rec TD
Why this DVS moved off a raw projection.
Process ×0.99
Process residual (not a second production percentile).
Org environment ×0.99
Team pass/rush volume vs league — scheme residual, not a second projection.
Smith-Njigba caught 119 passes for 1,793 yards in 2025, finishing WR2. He scored 22% more than his touches said he should. The arc is recovery: WR48, then WR10, now WR2. Into 2026, the projection still expects starter production. That's a buy-low window if the price still reflects the rough year, not the recovery.
Dynasty notes from our blog that mention Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
Is Rome Odunze Finally Ready for a Real Breakout in 2026?
Rome Odunze was on a WR1 pace before a foot injury wiped out his 2025 season. Here's why his dynasty value points up with DJ Moore gone and Ben Johnson calling plays.
Is Ladd McConkey a Buy-Low After a Rough Sophomore Year?
Ladd McConkey fell from WR12 to WR29, but his quarterback broke his hand and his offensive line collapsed around him. Here's an honest look at his dynasty value.
Zay Flowers Just Got Paid — Does the Ravens' Offense Hold Him Back?
Zay Flowers signed a $140 million extension after a WR7 breakout, but Baltimore's offense was one of the league's lowest-volume passing attacks. Here's his dynasty value.
Is Malik Nabers a Top-5 Dynasty WR Regardless of QB Play?
Malik Nabers tore his ACL in Week 4 and needed a second cleanup surgery in May. Here's an honest look at his recovery timeline and dynasty value heading into 2026.
You're Rebuilding. Here's Who to Target.
Dynasty rebuilds are won on three fronts — rookie draft capital, real buy-low gaps between 2026 projection and Dynasty Value Score, and knowing which vets to flip while that score is still high.
Is Tetairoa McMillan a Star Trapped by His Situation?
Tetairoa McMillan was the best rookie receiver in football by advanced metrics, but his chemistry with Bryce Young raises real questions. Here's his dynasty value.
Is Marvin Harrison Jr. Still a Dynasty Buy, or Is the Bust Talk Real?
Marvin Harrison Jr.'s sophomore season was rougher than his rookie year, with real drop issues and a crowded target hierarchy. Here's an honest look at his dynasty value.
Is JSN's Breakout Year Real or a Product of Volume?
Jaxon Smith-Njigba led the NFL in receiving yards, won a Super Bowl, and just signed a $168.6 million extension. Here's why his dynasty value isn't a volume mirage.
Is Amon-Ra St. Brown the Safest WR1 in Dynasty?
Amon-Ra St. Brown has finished WR3 in half-PPR in each of the last three seasons. Here's why he might be dynasty's safest asset at the position.
Is CeeDee Lamb Still a True WR1 After a Down Year?
Lamb played through a high ankle sprain for most of 2025 and still finished 2nd in deep receiving yards. NextDyne's model still has him as the WR1 for 2026.
Is Ja'Marr Chase Untouchable in Dynasty Trades?
Ja'Marr Chase owns the top Dynasty Value Score of any receiver. Here's whether that makes him a true untouchable, or just the best asset with a price.
Is Brian Thomas Jr. a Buy-Low After His Sophomore Slump?
BTJ went from a Pro Bowl rookie to one of 2025's biggest fantasy busts. Here's why the injuries, not the talent, explain the collapse.
Half-PPR points
300.4
PPG
17.7
Positional finish
WR2
Key stats
2025: 17.7 PPG actual vs 14.5 expected from usage (17 REG weeks, half-PPR) — outperformed by 22%.
| Season | Finish | Half-PPR FP | PPG | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Rush yd | Rush TD | Pass yd | Pass TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | WR2 | 300.4 | 17.7 | 119 | 1793 | 10 | 36 | — | — | — |
| 2024 | WR10 | 203.0 | 11.9 | 100 | 1130 | 6 | 26 | — | 35 | — |
| 2023 | WR48 | 118.3 | 7.0 | 63 | 628 | 4 | — | — | — | — |
Career arc
Dashed bar is the 2026 Engine projection, not a completed season.
| Week | Half-PPR FP | Opp | Script | Rec | Rush | Pass |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W18 | 11.4 | SF | 65 plays · 40% pass | 84 · 6 rec | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 W17 | 11.7 | CAR | 63 plays · 43% pass | 72 · 9 rec | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 W16 | 19.6 | LA | 59 plays · 58% pass | 96 / 1 TD · 8 rec | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 W15 | 14.8 | IND | 58 plays · 62% pass | 113 · 7 rec | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 W14 | 24.6 | ATL | 56 plays · 54% pass | 92 / 2 TD · 7 rec | -1 | 0 |
| 2025 W13 | 3.3 | MIN | 58 plays · 45% pass | 23 · 2 rec | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 W12 | 33.1 | TEN | 46 plays · 57% pass | 167 / 2 TD · 8 rec | 4 | 0 |
| 2025 W11 | 16.1 | LA | 79 plays · 56% pass | 105 · 9 rec | 11 | 0 |
| 2025 W10 | 17.8 | ARI | 58 plays · 21% pass | 93 / 1 TD · 5 rec | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 W9 | 18.0 | WAS | 48 plays · 50% pass | 129 · 8 rec | 11 | 0 |
Weekly Half-PPR
Hover a week for the gap.
Dashed line is expected Half-PPR from usage.
Those opponents
Pass yards they allowed per game in 2025, vs league. Plus is easier.
Snap share
2025 offense · 77.4% mean
target share
Hover a week for the share.
Pass-play participation
92.0%
2025· share of the team’s dropback plays this player was on the field for. Presence, not a charted route rate.
Advanced (2025)
Durability
R1 (20 overall) WR · that slot hit at 60.0% in 2010–2023 classes (n=55; contributor 72.7%). Window is the first three NFL seasons.
2025 season · Next Gen Stats · ranks among NGS sample
31st of 85
36th of 85
24th of 85
1st of 85
Similar age, draft capital, and role — context for outcome bands, not a second DVS.