RB · CAR · #28
Played a short 2025 (6 games) — health is the nearer question than talent.
Dynasty Value Score (DVS)
172
Range 101–244
Based on 2025 production and our 2026 projection
Depth/upside bet — RB role isn't locked starter volume yet.
DVS is our model view, scored on Engine-default half-PPR — not a guaranteed price in your league. Bye weeks and schedule strength are left out on purpose.
2026 Engine Projections
39.6 pts
2.3 PPG · 7.0 games
211.3 rush yds · 7.6 rec · 76.9 rec yds
Why this DVS moved off a raw projection.
Durability ×0.96
One recent short season (games missed). Production already saw the missed games — this is forward risk only.
Dillon ran for 60 yards and caught 3 passes in 2025, finishing RB114. He scored about 28% less than his touches said he should. Production trend is soft: RB40 → RB114 over the last two seasons. 2025 stopped at 6 games; staying on the field is the swing factor. Treat this as a watch, not a hold-forever — confirm the dip is real before adding more exposure.
Dynasty notes from our blog that mention AJ Dillon.
Half-PPR points
7.6
PPG
1.3
Positional finish
RB114
Key stats
2025: 1.3 PPG actual vs 1.8 expected from usage (6 REG weeks, half-PPR) — underperformed by 28%.
| Season | Finish | Half-PPR FP | PPG | Rush yd | Rush TD | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Pass yd | Pass TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | RB114 | 7.6 | 1.3 | 60 | — | 3 | 21 | — | — | — |
| 2023 | RB40 | 106.6 | 7.1 | 613 | 2 | 22 | 223 | — | — | — |
| 2022 | RB25 | 153.6 | 9.0 | 770 | 7 | 28 | 206 | — | — | — |
| 2021 | RB23 | 168.6 | 9.9 | 803 | 5 | 34 | 313 | 2 | — | — |
| 2020 | RB80 | 39.3 | 4.4 | 242 | 2 | 2 | 21 | — | — | — |
Career arc
Dashed bar is the 2026 Engine projection, not a completed season.
| Week | Half-PPR FP | Opp | Script | Rush | Rec | Pass |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W18 | 0.8 | WAS | 59 plays · 68% pass | 0 | 3 · 1 rec | 0 |
| 2025 W6 | 1.0 | NYG | 53 plays · 62% pass | 2 | 18 · 2 rec | 0 |
| 2025 W5 | 1.2 | DEN | 49 plays · 78% pass | 12 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 W4 | 1.7 | TB | 56 plays · 43% pass | 17 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 W2 | 1.9 | KC | 56 plays · 39% pass | 19 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 W1 | 1.0 | DAL | 61 plays · 38% pass | 10 | 0 | 0 |
Weekly Half-PPR
Hover a week for the gap.
Dashed line is expected Half-PPR from usage.
Those opponents
Rush yards they allowed per game in 2025, vs league. Plus is easier.
Snap share
2025 offense · 11.9% mean
carry share
Hover a week for the share.
Pass-play participation
10.8%
2025· share of the team’s dropback plays this player was on the field for. Presence, not a charted route rate.
Advanced (2025)
Durability
R2 (62 overall) RB · that slot hit at 56.8% in 2010–2023 classes (n=37; contributor 70.3%). Window is the first three NFL seasons.
No Next Gen Stats for this player yet.
Similar age, draft capital, and role — context for outcome bands, not a second DVS.